The current stalemate in the American-Iranian peace talks, continued high international oil prices, continued military friction between the two sides, continued multilateral good offices, increased volatility in energy markets and pressure on the global energy supply chain. According to numerous media reports, Trump has rejected Iran ' s offer of a settlement, stating that it has failed to meet the demands of the United States, while implying that a new military strike against Iran is not precluded, while the Iranian side has stated that it is ready to respond to a new strike, while retaining the space for diplomatic negotiations and proposing that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened within seven days if the United States were to release the naval blockade from Iranian ports.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched a military operation code-named “History Fury”, which struck nuclear facilities, ballistic missile infrastructure, naval forces and command networks throughout Iran, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in the first hours of the operation, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei. Iran subsequently launched more than 90 missile and drone attacks on Israeli and United States allies' bases in the Persian Gulf, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which previously had borne the burden of about 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, directly resulting in sharp fluctuations in global energy prices. On 17 June 2026, with the good offices of Pakistan, the two sides signed the Islamabad Memorandum containing 14 articles, and the Strait of Hormuz resumed navigation the following day. On 7 July, however, when the ceasefire broke down as a result of the shipping dispute between the parties, Trump declared the aide-memoire “defunct” on 8 July, Iran declared it null and void on 14 July, and the fighting escalated again, the United States continued its attacks on Iran's related targets and Iran continued its attacks on American and ally targets in the area. During the recent United Nations General Assembly session, the first high-level diplomatic contacts in recent months took place: Iran ' s Foreign Minister, Aragzi, and the United States Special Envoy, Vitkov, and the Senior Adviser to the White House, Kushner, communicated through the presence of the Qatari mediation, the first high-level dialogue between the parties since the breakdown of the ceasefire in July. Trump initially publicly called the talks “very productive” and considered that the two sides had reached an agreement “high momentum”, but then rejected the settlement proposal submitted by Iran, claiming that it did not meet the demands of the United States and needed “a better agreement”. According to numerous media reports, Trump privately expressed doubts to the team about Iran ' s response to United States demands and the high likelihood of a new bombing campaign.
The current situation has a direct impact on many sectors and groups: The first is in the field of energy. International oil prices have continued to rise since the escalation of the blockade and subsequent fighting. In order to address the impact of the blockade on the Straits of Al-Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has significantly increased the volume of traffic through the East-West pipeline, exporting oil through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, but is unable to fully bridge the supply gap created by the blockade of the Straits. In addition, the United States Treasury Department has previously blacklisted Iran Air Monitor, threatening to impose sanctions on any foreign agency operating with Iran Airlines, and Treasury Secretary Besent has publicly stated that all Iranian Airlines operations worldwide will be suspended. It was also reported that Iranian oil previously seized by the United States, valued at approximately $600 million, would soon be auctioned for disposal. The second is shipping and aviation. The risk of passage through the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in the cost of merchant ship insurance through the region, and some shipping enterprises have adjusted their routes to avoid the Persian Gulf region and to raise global logistics costs. Airline routes in the Middle East region have also fluctuated owing to the risk of fighting, and some airlines have adjusted their flights over the region. In addition, the recent arrest by the British police of five persons suspected of preparing for a terrorist attack near the RAF base for use by the United States military, and the seizure of explosives, as well as statements by Republican parliamentarians that Iran might be associated with the plan, further exacerbated regional security risks. In addition, the United States military presence in Iran continues to be threatened: The United States has denied the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's recent claim that an advanced U.S. underwater drone was captured in the “hunting zone” of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's recent missile attacks on the Mufak Salty airbase for use by the United States forces in Jordan, where the Jordanian military claimed to have intercepted 18 ballistic missiles for attack, two of which fell into the no-man's zone, and the United States military confirmed that members of the Marine Corps had been injured in the recent Iranian attack. For ordinary consumers, rising oil prices will directly push up the cost of commuting, and rising logistics costs will gradually be channelled to final consumer prices, increasing the pressure on living costs.
Neither side of the United States nor the United States is currently closing the negotiating window, but there are significant gaps in positions. The terms of reconciliation proposed by Iran include the end of all hostilities, the cessation of “acts of aggression” by the United States, and the lifting of restrictions on Iranian shipping and assets; the United States demands that Iran meet the more stringent conditions it has put forward, as Trump had previously indicated that an agreement could be reached after the United States mid-term elections in November, but it is also clear that the possibility of further military strikes is not excluded. There are a number of key points that need to be addressed: first, whether the proposal by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days will receive an official response from the United States; secondly, whether the “renewed negotiations” referred to by Trump this week will actually be launched and whether the parties will be able to bridge the gap between their positions through Qatari mediators; thirdly, whether the United States will further escalate military or economic pressure in the run-up to the mid-November elections; and fourthly, whether the shipping status of the Strait of Hormuz and the movement of international oil prices and the direction of supply-chain adjustments in energy-importing countries. For energy-importing and shipping industries, there is a need to pay close attention to safety alerts for passage in the Strait of Hormuz, to rationalize procurement and transport plans, to hedge price volatility risks, and for aviation and tourism, to continuously assess security risks in the Middle East region, and to adjust routes and travel arrangements.