On 27 September 2026, local time, after Saudi Arabia had completed the full rehabilitation and resumed export operations of the core East-to-East pipeline, which had been shut down by an armed attack, the current oil supply had recovered to close to 90 per cent of design capacity, driving Saudi crude oil exports to their highest level since the outbreak of the Iranian war in September, and the overall crude oil export volume in the Middle East region grew by about 12 per cent.
Several energy traders and shipping data indicate that the pipeline has gradually resumed full-load operations since mid-September, when it completed the last pressure test and safety check of the damaged pipeline, and that, as at 27 September, the daily volume of fuel delivered had stabilized at about 4.5 million barrels, close to its design capacity ceiling of 5 million barrels per day. As a result, Saudi crude oil exports grew around 17 per cent in September, with an 18 per cent increase in crude oil shipping to Europe and a 9 per cent increase in the ring to Asia, leading directly to a rebound in crude oil exports in the Middle East region as a whole in September, reversing the continued decline in exports over the previous three months. At present, the pipeline is responsible for about one third of Saudi crude oil export trans-shipments, and crude oil from oil fields along the eastern Persian Gulf can be shipped directly to the port of Yanbu in the western Red Sea, without the need to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
The pipeline was the core energy channel built by Saudi Arabia in the 1980s to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, after it had been the target of a number of attacks by Yemeni forces. Earlier this year, Al-Houthi forces launched multiple attacks on the pipeline, causing damage to many parts of the pipeline, temporarily suspending the operation of the pipeline and launching temporary standby programmes, including increasing direct export capacity at ports along the Persian Gulf coast and trans-shipment of crude oil through small oil pipelines in the Red Sea, but only 60 per cent of the total capacity of the alternative option resulted in a 15 per cent drop in Saudi crude oil exports following the attack and short-term fluctuations in international oil prices. The Saudi energy sector previously indicated that the repairs to the pipeline had lasted almost four months, replacing approximately 12 kilometres of damaged sections and upgrading the pipe ' s security surveillance system and resistance. Although Saudi Arabia has for many years advanced the construction of alternative transport programmes in an attempt to move away completely from reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, several media reports indicate that there is currently no alternative to the pipeline in the short term and that the Strait of Hormuz remains the core channel for Saudi crude oil exports. In addition, Saudi Arabia has reached an agreement with France that the French forces will contribute troops to help Saudi Arabia secure its energy facilities and enhance its protection against core energy facilities, such as oil pipelines, and that Saudi allies have publicly expressed support for Saudi actions to secure energy facilities, including intelligence-sharing and military assistance.
First, energy traders and investors: With the resumption of pipeline operations, Saudi crude oil supply stability has increased significantly, following the gradual release of stocks of crude oil previously accumulated as a result of the suspension of pipelines, the retreat of speculative positions in which oil prices were pledged to rise, and a small decline of about 2 per cent in international oil prices following the announcement of repairs. For investors holding Saudi energy-related assets, the resumption of pipelines reduced the operational risk of Saudi energy exports and the volatility of the associated assets decreased by about 15 per cent. The second is crude oil-importing countries and general consumers: increased Saudi crude oil supply has eased supply tensions in the global crude oil market, and downward pressure on the prices of finished oil in major crude oil-importing countries in Europe and Asia has increased. On the United States side, there are reports that the current United States Government has not been involved in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Al-Houthi, and that if the subsequent escalation leads to a further disruption of the supply of crude oil, United States consumers may be under pressure to increase the price of gas stations and that the price of United States gasoline will be maintained in the current zone in the short term or as a result of the stability of supplies. Third is shipping and energy industry operators: the demand for crude oil transport on the Red Sea route has rebounded, after some of the unoccupied tankers had been reordered because the pipeline had been shut down, resulting in a small increase of about 8 per cent. In Saudi Arabia, where the operational stability of energy extraction, pipelines and security-related jobs has been enhanced, the Saudi Government has announced an additional investment of approximately $200 million for the security of energy facilities, and the demand for related engineering and security positions is expected to increase by about 10 per cent.
At present, Al-Houthi forces have publicly threatened to attack Saudi energy facilities again, including infrastructure such as the oil pipeline and the bridge across the sea. The security situation following the resumption of operations of the pipeline is a central observation point, and if the attack is repeated, Saudi crude oil exports may again fluctuate and international oil prices will be adjusted accordingly. In addition, Saudi Arabia is accelerating the construction of two alternative oil pipelines: a north-line land pipeline, which would allow for the direct shipment of crude oil to the port of Aqaba, Jordan, bypass Holmuz, and the Red Sea route; and an expansion of crude oil storage and loading facilities along the Persian Gulf coast, which would increase the flexibility of direct exports, the construction progress of which would directly affect the stability of Saudi future energy exports. The next issue of the global crude oil market report, to be issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in mid-October, will adjust the forecast of Saudi crude oil exports and the relevant market participants will be able to follow its contents. For ordinary consumers, the global supply of crude oil will remain relatively stable in the short term, with a low probability of a significant increase in the price of finished oil, but sustained attention will need to be paid to the follow-up to geo-conflict developments in the Middle East. (approximately 2100 words in full)