According to various media reports, President Donald Trump ' s support rate fell to 32 per cent in late September 2026, the lowest record in his political career and below that of his first term. This figure is about six weeks from mid-November 3rd, when the Republicans now hold a narrow majority in Congress, and the fall in support has raised concerns within the White House and the Republicans.
Other polls during the same period showed a similar downward trend. In a survey conducted between 16 and 20 September by American Research Group, Trump ' s support rate was 29 per cent, the first time in his political career that it fell by 30 per cent. According to the national poll, 35 per cent of respondents approved Trump ' s performance, 59 per cent did not, with a net negative of 24 percentage points. The average opinion of the decision-making desk headquarters (Decision Desk HQ) shows that the Trump support rate is about 38.8 per cent, with a non-ratification rate of 59.7 per cent. In addition, a joint poll by The New York Times and Siena College revealed that the Republican party lags behind the Democratic Party on immigration, health care and economic issues.
In terms of long-term trends, Trump's support rate has continued to decline from 47 per cent in January 2025, when it took office. In March 2026, his support rate fell to 36 per cent, which was the lowest point in the polls since his return to the White House, mainly due to his widespread dissatisfaction with the launching of military operations in Iran. In August 2026, his support rate had dropped to 33 per cent, which was the lowest point in the first term in December 2017. In mid-September, his support rate rose briefly to 35 per cent, but then fell again to 32 per cent in the 17-20 September survey. Such fluctuations may fall within the margin of error in single-week polls, but overall trends indicate a continuous decline.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted from 17 to 20 September for a period of four days and collected an online response from 1,277 adults in the United States, with an error range of 3 percentage points. According to this survey, the Trump support rate fell to 32 per cent and the non-ratification rate reached 66 per cent. The support rate decreased by 15 percentage points compared to the initial period of service, while the non-ratification rate rose by 25 percentage points.
The U.S. Research Group survey was also conducted from 16 to 20 September, with a sample of 1,100 adults. The survey found that only 26 per cent of respondents had a positive view of the economy, while 72 per cent believed that it was deteriorating. This economic perception echoes the decline in the Trump support rate.
Civíqs ' national tracking poll showed that 35 per cent of the people approved Trump ' s performance, 59 per cent did not, and the net negative was 24 percentage points. The average of the polls at the policy-making desk headquarters shows a support rate of 38.8 per cent, compared with a non-ratification rate of 59.7 per cent. The New York Times' joint poll with Siena College further shows that Republicans lag behind Democrats on immigration, health care and economic issues.
The common denominator of these polls is that Trump ' s support rate is at a low level among the different survey bodies and that there is a marked downward trend. While single polls may fluctuate, data from multiple survey agencies point in the same direction: Trump ' s support rate was historically low before the midterm elections.
According to several media reports, the main reason for the decline in the Trump support rate was the war in Iran and the rising cost of living. Trump ordered military action against Iran on 28 February 2025, after which petrol and diesel prices increased significantly in the United States. The war became the largest source of discontent within the Republican party.
According to Reuters/Ipsos, only 17 per cent of respondents have approved Trump’s performance in dealing with the cost of living, which the Americans have indicated will be the first issue to choose in the November 3 midterm election. Republican voters ' dissatisfaction with the cost of living has been growing since Trump launched the conflict against Iran. For the first time, the number of Republicans who did not authorize the Trump to deal with the cost of living was higher than the number of those who did, 51 per cent against 44 per cent.
The poll by CBS News/YouGov found that 66% of potential voters felt that the war in Iran was very important in determining which congressional candidates they supported, while 71% of Americans were reluctant to pay higher fuel prices for it. This data indicates that the economic consequences of the war are directly affecting the decision-making of the electorate.
When Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he promised to control inflation and end the foreign war. However, according to Reuters/Ipsos, his support rate fell by 15 percentage points from 47 per cent shortly after his inauguration. The current 32% support rate is not only below the lowest point in his first term, 33%, but also below President Joe Biden ' s minimum support rate of 35% at the end of October 2024. Biden then gave up his candidacy for re-election because of age and bad performance in a debate.
The decline in support rates has raised concerns within the Republican party. According to Reuters/Ipsos, Trump’s support rate within the Republican Party fell from 82 per cent a week ago to 73 per cent, with nine percentage points falling seven weeks before the mid-election of 3 November. This was the first time that the Republican Party had seen such a decline in intra-party support before the midterm elections.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, Trump is predicting the success of the midterm elections, but Republicans are beginning to feel panic. Numerous media reports show that there is anxiety within the White House about the decline in support, especially as the mid-term elections approach.
In mid-September, Trump promised at the first Republican midterm nomination conference that if the Republicans took control of Congress, they would give the Americans $5,000 "Trump dividend". However, polls at the time revealed that 63 per cent of Americans, including 40 per cent of Republicans, were opposed to this commitment. Instead of boosting the rate of support, this proposal may only increase the suspicion of voters.
In addition, the decline in the Trump support rate is reflected in data from different states. According to polls from New Hampshire University, Trump has the lowest rate of support in New Hampshire. A report by Newsweek shows that Trump has also experienced a decline in support rates in major beef-producing states. The decline in these regional data further suggests that the decline in support rates is not a localized phenomenon but a national trend.
Trump ' s current support rate is historically low and disadvantaged compared to the performance of other presidents at a similar stage. According to data from the Pew Research Centre in mid-July 2026, Trump ' s support rate was 34 per cent, lower than his support rate at the same time during his first term of office, and lower than most other recent presidents ' support at a similar stage in his tenure.
While the decline in the support rate from the time of taking office to the mid-term elections was not uncommon in recent presidential terms – as was the case with Biden, Obama, Clinton and Reagan – Obama, Clinton and Reagan were clearly above Trump’s current level before the mid-term elections. Trump's current support rate is in the middle of 30 percent, a level that has been historically associated only with President George W. Bush. Bush is the only president who has been in the middle or lower 30 percent of his tenure since Jimmy Carter.
Trump's current 32% support rate is not only below the 35% lowest point at the end of October 2024 in Biden, but also below the 33% lowest point in his first term. This figure marks the lowest level of support in his political career and was the first to fall 33 per cent in his second term.
As the mid-term elections on 3 November approached, the low support rate in Trump challenged the Republican party. The Republican party is currently maintaining a narrow majority in Congress, and the decline in the support rate may affect the will of voters to vote and the final election results.
Voters are most interested in the cost of living, and Trump's performance on this topic has received only 17 per cent support. This means that the Republican Party may face difficulties in the mid-term elections if Trump fails to improve voters ' perception of the economic situation before the elections. The increase in fuel prices as a result of the war in Iran was the main source of voter dissatisfaction, and 66 per cent of potential voters considered the topic to be very important in determining the voting options.
Concerns within the Republican party may affect campaign strategies and resource allocation. The White House and the Republican Party need to decide how to deal with the decline in support rates, whether to continue to emphasize the security gains of the war or to turn to economic issues to calm voters. Current data show that voters are more concerned with economic costs than with security gains.
The outcome of the midterm elections will determine the control of Congress, while the low support rate in Trump increases the risk of losing the Republican majority. Voters will take into account the economic situation, the effects of the war and other issues when voting, which, according to the current Trump support rate data, are unfavourable to the Republican party.
In the coming weeks, polling data will continue to reflect the views of voters on the performance of Trump, particularly on the key issues of living costs and the Iranian war. Trump and the Republican Party need to pay close attention to these data and adjust their campaign strategies accordingly to meet the challenges posed by the midterm elections.