Cuba Has 20-Hour Blackouts and Six Grid Collapses This Year: How Close to the Brink?
The Los Angeles Times recently sent a photographer on a road trip across Cuba to answer a single question: is the country collapsing? The numbers are stark. After the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January and threatened tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba, Havana lost its main fuel lifeline: in mid-May the government announced diesel and fuel-oil reserves had hit "zero," and on September 18 the national grid suffered its sixth nationwide collapse of the year. The United Nations is warning of a humanitarian crisis.
The energy collapse is the most visible symptom. On May 13, Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy announced on state television: "Crude oil, fuel oil — we have none at all; diesel — we have none at all," describing the grid as in "critical condition" and the country as running on domestic crude and natural gas alone. Cuba produces only about 40% of the oil it needs.
Blackouts have kept intensifying. In mid-May, Havana and other regions were losing power 20 to 22 hours a day. A UN report published in August found Cuba generating less than a third of national electricity demand, with some areas blacked out for more than 30 hours and many households getting just two to four hours of power daily. On September 18, two 220-kilovolt transmission lines tripped in succession, triggering the year's sixth national blackout and affecting an estimated 9 to 10 million people. The Associated Press and the Center for Economic and Policy Research count at least six nationwide outages since January.
After the "zero fuel" announcement, Havana saw its largest protests since January, with hundreds blocking roads and banging pots chanting for the lights to come back. In September, schools delayed reopening until November; hospitals canceled surgeries, pharmacies ran dry, and dengue spread.
Cuba's government blames Washington for everything. President Miguel Díaz-Canel calls it a "genocidal energy blockade," saying Cuba needs eight oil tankers a month and receives one. The vice foreign minister called restricting oil supplies an "international crime," and the foreign minister says the U.S. embargo cost Cuba more than $8 billion between March 2025 and February 2026. Havana says it is willing to negotiate with the United States but will not concede sovereignty.
The economic figures are equally grim. The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects Cuba's GDP will shrink 10.3% in 2026 — the worst in Latin America — and another 5.1% in 2027. International tourist arrivals reached just 387,591 in the first half of 2026, down 60.7% from a year earlier, and first-quarter hotel occupancy was 12.9%, versus 23.7% the year before.
The human cost is accumulating. The UN human rights office reported in June that Cuba's infant mortality rate had risen to 9.9 per thousand live births, up from 4 per thousand in 2018; 75% of essential medicines are in short supply; more than 100,000 patients — including 11,000 children — have had surgeries postponed because of blackouts; and food production has fallen 60%. The New York Times reported that thousands of containers of food and medicine are stranded at Caribbean ports as shipping companies avoid sanctions, forcing the World Health Organization to cancel a cancer-drug delivery program.
Washington tells a completely different story. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Fox News on September 29: "Cuba is not on the brink of collapse — it has already collapsed," adding that there is "no functioning economy, only a government that can jail and kill." President Trump called Cuba a "failed state" at the UN General Assembly on September 26, declaring that "freedom is coming to Cuba" — then told reporters the same day: "I think we're going to make a deal with Cuba; we don't need the military."
Sanctions keep tightening. In August, the U.S. sanctioned eight Cuban entities and three military officials; on September 3 it sanctioned Raúl Castro's grandson, the Banco Exterior de Cuba, and nickel and energy companies; on September 30, the Treasury escalated further, freezing overseas accounts of Cuban entrepreneurs and barring U.S.-jurisdiction persons from attending academic and professional conferences in Cuba. The State Department says new sanctions will come "every two weeks" to close off "escape valves." CBS reported on September 25 that internal U.S. Army Reserve documents show planning underway for a military operation involving Cuba.
Emigration figures reveal the depth of the crisis. The Council on Foreign Relations reported on September 21 that 1.6 to 2.75 million Cubans have left the island since 2020 — 13% to 25% of the population — while independent demographers estimate the real population is closer to 8.25 million, well below official figures.
The rest of the world is picking sides. In January, China approved $80 million in emergency aid and pledged 60,000 tons of rice, the first 15,000 tons arriving in Havana in May; on September 26, Vice President Han Zheng told the UN that "relevant countries" should stop military threats against Cuba and lift the blockade fully. Washington offered $100 million in humanitarian aid in May in exchange for "meaningful reforms" — Havana refused.
Foreign Affairs recently ran an essay titled "Cuba's Point of No Return — The Country Is Collapsing Even as Its Regime Survives." That may be the closest to the truth: blackouts, medicine shortages, food scarcity, and mass emigration have pushed Cuban society to the edge, while Havana's power structure has not yet cracked. Washington's biweekly sanctions, whether the grid survives peak demand, and whether any real negotiation happens will decide whether the island bottoms out — or slides deeper.