President Donald Trump told supporters at the Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton, Texas, on Thursday night that Iran "is ready to fold up" and that the United States would win the war "right after the election" — "maybe before the election." He promised energy prices, which have soared during the conflict, would be "rapidly, rapidly coming" down.
The same day, U.S. officials confirmed to CBS News and the Associated Press that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group are sailing for the Middle East. About 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines are en route and could arrive by the end of October. The deployment would give the Pentagon three carrier strike groups and two amphibious ready groups in the region — roughly 20,000 American personnel plus hundreds of vessels and aircraft — alongside the USS George H.W. Bush, the USS George Washington, and the USS Boxer group already there.
"I'm ensuring that Iran will be very quickly ended," Trump said. He added that Washington was "trying to be nice" to Iran's current leader, "but we don't know who the hell to deal with, to be honest with you. Nobody wants to be president."
Trump tied the war directly to energy costs. An AP-NORC poll released Thursday found 71 percent of Americans disapprove of the war, about half worry they will not be able to afford food and gasoline, and only 26 percent approve of Trump's handling of the economy.
The midterm elections frame every statement. Asked by TIME on Monday whether he would "ramp up bombing after the midterms," Trump answered with a single word: "Possible." On Thursday outside the White House, he conceded the war could cost Republicans Congress: "It's possible. It should help," he said, "because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon." Meanwhile Tehran is weighing Washington's counterproposal to its offer of a seven-day ceasefire and a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil markets are moving on the politics. Brent crude fell to $100 a barrel by Friday morning, more than $5 below Thursday's close, after Reuters reported that European governments were discussing a release of 50 million barrels of diesel stocks, with G7 leaders expected to take up the idea on a Friday call. AAA put the national average gasoline price at $4.40 a gallon on Friday.
For voters, it is a pocketbook issue: Trump needs the price chart heading down before November 3. For the 20,000 service members heading to the region and their families, there is visible tension between a promise of victory "right after the election" and the reality of three carrier strike groups.
Trump also offered a new rationale for the war, claiming he bombed Iran partly because "they were doing drugs" — a departure from his usual emphasis on stopping a nuclear weapon.
The three-carrier buildup completes at the end of October, days before the November 3 vote. Trump has offered two versions of what follows: a quick win after the election, or stepped-up bombing. Promises are cheap; carriers are expensive; voters remember the price at the pump.