The global PC market just posted its ugliest quarter in years. Preliminary data from IDC this week shows worldwide PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, to just 62.7 million units, down from 78.5 million a year earlier. It is the largest third-quarter decline IDC has ever recorded and the market's steepest drop since Q1 2023 (-28.7%).
Rival firm Omdia paints an even darker picture: a 21.2% year-over-year decline to 58.1 million units, also the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2023.
What makes the slump unusual is the seasonality. The third quarter usually outshines the second thanks to back-to-school buying. Instead, IDC estimates shipments fell 9.1% sequentially from Q2's 68.2 million units.
By form factor, Omdia reports desktop shipments (including workstations) fell 23.5% to 11.7 million units, while laptops (including mobile workstations) declined 20.6% to 46.4 million — desktops took the hardest hit.
Jitesh Ubrani, research director for consumer devices at IDC, says the damage was self-inflicted in the first half. Earlier this year, vendors and channel partners loaded up on inventory to get ahead of anticipated memory price hikes, pulling demand forward. By Q3, channels were stuffed with machines and fresh orders dried up.
"Channels are now worried about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand," Ubrani said. Distributors are now racing to sell through that stockpile while facing sticker-shocked buyers.
The price pressure traces back to the AI data center buildout. The AI industry's appetite for memory and storage has sent component costs soaring, and PC makers have passed the increases to consumers, further suppressing demand. IDC notes this is the second straight quarterly decline, following a revised 3.8% drop in Q2.
No major vendor escaped: HP plunged 30.9% to 10.3 million units, the worst among the top five; Dell fell 25% to 7.6 million; Lenovo dropped 22.6% to 14.9 million but retained the top spot; Apple (-11.3%) and ASUS (-8.6%) fared better and gained share — though in a shrinking market, share gains are a cold comfort.
IDC expects PC prices to remain well above year-ago levels for the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Some short-term promotions are possible, but the trend is set. Ubrani warns that with macro conditions worsening, "the risk is that the outlook for the next few quarters gets worse before it gets better."
For everyday buyers, the choice is stark: pay the higher prices or keep the old machine. That sentiment — existing computers are good enough — is the other footnote to Q3's collapse.