Saturday's air show at San Francisco Fleet Week may come with an asterisk. The U.S. Navy Blue Angels are performing over San Francisco Bay this weekend, but Friday's show was cut short by stubborn low fog — and Saturday's threat is high wind, with gusts up to 45 mph that could force the precision flight team into a modified, limited routine.
The Blue Angels are away from home this week: the squadron is based at Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida and traveled to San Francisco for Fleet Week, which runs October 4–12. Air shows are scheduled daily from noon to 4 p.m. on October 9–11 over the bay between the Golden Gate Bridge and Alcatraz, with ticketed seating at Marina Green.
But Bay Area weather keeps picking fights with the pilots. On Friday, persistent low clouds and restricted visibility forced the Blues to end their performance early. Saturday brought clearing skies — and gales. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, northwest winds were expected to gust up to 45 mph across San Francisco, the Peninsula and inland valleys, with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph directly over the bay. The National Weather Service issued a Beach Hazard Statement, a Small Craft Advisory and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the area.
Weather dictates which routine the Blue Angels can safely fly. Under the team's operational guidelines, a full "high show" requires a cloud ceiling of at least 8,000 feet and horizontal visibility of three nautical miles. A 4,500-foot ceiling forces the "low show," cutting high vertical loops and rolls; at 1,500 feet only the mostly-level "flat show" is possible.
Wind is a separate problem: clear skies don't guarantee a standard performance. Sustained crosswinds and strong turbulence over the water make tight formations and close passes hazardous, frequently resulting in a modified show. Afternoon gusts near 30 mph over the bay are merely a hat-grabbing nuisance for spectators — but a genuine test for formation flying measured in feet of separation.
The weekend winds have a source. Tropical Storm Rachel is approaching Southern California: the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. PDT Saturday advisory put its maximum sustained winds at about 60 mph (95 kph), with the center roughly 595 miles south-southwest of San Diego and moving east-northeast at 21 mph. A tropical storm watch was issued for San Diego County — only the second on record.
Rachel is expected to make landfall Saturday night on the northern Baja California Peninsula, with its remnants possibly reaching the lower deserts of southeast California early Sunday, bringing gusts over 40 mph. Farther south, Category 4 Hurricane Simon is bearing down on Mexico's Pacific coast while Hurricane Isaias just made landfall in Florida — three tropical systems menacing North America in a single weekend.
For spectators, the consolation is that Sunday's winds are forecast to ease (gusts around 19 mph), when a normal show is more likely. The catch: Saturday's 3–5 p.m. window — peak showtime — is also peak wind. Anyone hoping for the full high-altitude spectacle may want to temper expectations, or simply come back Sunday.