The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading super PAC behind House Republicans, has canceled advertising in four races running from the Midwest to the East Coast and increased its investment in 16 others, from Texas to Pennsylvania. The clearest casualty is Iowa's 1st District, where three-term Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is defending her seat against Democrat Christina Bohannan. Two Republican campaign officials familiar with the group's plans confirmed the pullout.
The New York Times reported that two major super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump and House leadership canceled all remaining ad reservations for Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey and for Miller-Meeks over the weekend, after internal Republican polling showed both incumbents' chances fading. Combined with last week's withdrawal from the open Nebraska seat of retiring Rep. Don Bacon, national Republicans have effectively surrendered three districts they currently hold — the first time this cycle that outside groups have cut loose their own incumbents. One source told the Times that more seats could be dropped this week.
The decisions follow internal GOP surveys showing the two races slipping away. CNN had already reported on Oct. 3 that House Republicans were entering triage mode, with Trump's approval sinking in the party's own polling over the previous two weeks and lawmakers privately discussing pulling money from once-competitive races.
CLF president Chris Winkelman cast the moves as discipline rather than retreat. "For two years, we've built the resources and infrastructure that allow us to maneuver in a difficult environment," he said in a statement. "These moves keep the pressure on the most vulnerable Democrats and preserve a path to 218 seats."
Speaker Mike Johnson rallied with Miller-Meeks in Iowa on Friday. She dismissed the earlier report of a funding pullout: "You just saw Speaker Johnson here. That is a flat-out lie." She also waved off the prognosticators: "I do not care what the experts say. They do not know Iowa, and they do not know us."
Reports built on the same planning put the redirected money at roughly $10 million pulled from Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey and Ohio and spread across 16 new districts. Those races, along with one in the Cincinnati area and one in east-central Michigan, have accounted for $13.3 million in CLF spending — more than 12 percent of its total through Oct. 13. Money is flowing to Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Monica De La Cruz of Texas, Rob Wittman of Virginia and Bill Huizenga of Michigan.
The DCCC believes at least a dozen more races are within striking distance but lacks the cash to exploit them. It launched a $17 million fundraising drive, due Oct. 22, to buy airtime in districts once seen as out of reach. "It is not that we need the money to win in the districts where we have been running to get to 218 seats," said communications director Courtney Rice. "We are talking about the next level." The committee says a late advertising round could net at least half a dozen more seats. The crypto-backed Fairshake super PAC is launching a $7 million campaign, according to AdImpact.
Earlier in October the CLF pulled $1.1 million in television advertising from Nebraska's 2nd District, the Omaha-area seat Bacon is leaving after five terms. Trump's MAGA Inc. followed, and House Majority PAC pulled a matching amount on the Democratic side. Most polling has Republican Brinker Harding trailing Democrat Denise Powell by three to five points.
In Nevada, an ad-tracking alert shows the Trump-aligned Safety and Affordability PAC canceled $953,995 in Las Vegas-market television ads scheduled for Oct. 14-20, leaving its planned spending for that week at zero. The PAC had reserved about $3.2 million in October and November. The contest is Democratic Rep. Susie Lee against Republican Marty O'Donnell in the 3rd District.
The House stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent who caucuses with the GOP and two vacancies. With 218 the majority threshold, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. The Cook Political Report recently shifted 18 House races to the left, including four GOP-held seats from toss-up to lean Democratic.
Democrats are pressing the advantage. The DCCC added eight Republican-held or GOP-leaning districts to its offensive list in early October, expanding its Districts in Play program to 66 seats, and House Majority PAC and its affiliates raised $230 million from July through September, a quarterly record. Republicans remain publicly confident. "Thirty days out, House Republicans are on offense, and we are outspending Democrats in the final stretch in every race," NRCC spokesperson Will Kiley said. "House Republicans are going to defy history, and we are going to win."