Rocket Lab's Neutron Slips to 2027 and the Stock Pays for It Twice
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) told investors on Wednesday, October 14, that the first flight of Neutron, its reusable medium-lift rocket, will not happen until 2027. The disclosure came in a Form 8-K filing and a video update from chief executive Peter Beck. The stock fell about 8% in regular trading to $59.18, then slid again after hours, touching $53.44 — roughly another 8%. Reuters put the extended-session decline at about 6%.
RKLB closed lower for a sixth straight session and finished the week down about 13%, its worst weekly drop in roughly three months. The shares are off 15% year to date and more than 60% below a 52-week high of $151. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits sank to its lowest level on record.
According to MarketWatch and Spaceflight Now, Beck laid out three steps: build a new forward dome and inspect it fully to rule out further defects; complete both of those this year; then assemble and test the complete first-stage tank in the first quarter of 2027. Only after that test will Rocket Lab name a new launch date. The extra time, he said, will also be used to pull upgrades onto the debut vehicle that had been planned for later flights.
The immediate cause is a manufacturing defect. Beck said inspection of the newly cured forward dome found tiny voids or air pockets between layers of the carbon composite. They did not guarantee an in-flight failure, he said, but they fell short of the margins the company requires, so the part must be remade. The problem appeared in thicker sections added during a redesign that followed a first-stage tank rupture in hydrostatic testing in January 2026. Rocket Lab has moved from hand-laid carbon fiber at a supplier to an automated placement machine and is adjusting the curing process. A rear dome produced with the revised method was, in Beck's words, the highest-quality carbon composite dome to date.
Neutron was unveiled in 2021 with a 2024 debut target. That moved to mid-2025, then into 2026; the January tank failure pushed it to no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2026. In August, Beck said the year-end window was "narrowing" and reframed the goal as getting the vehicle to the pad in the fourth quarter. Stock Titan's timeline counts this as the third time the target has slipped into a later calendar year.
That was Beck's framing in the update. He added that Rocket Lab believes neutron will be "a game changer" and that taking the time now puts the company in a better position to deliver a rocket that meets industry needs for years. The line has been widely quoted as a restatement of the company's build-it-right posture.
Neutron stands about 43 meters tall and 7 meters in diameter, with roughly 13,000 kilograms of payload to low Earth orbit — about 8,000 kilograms in reusable mode. Its first stage runs nine 3D-printed Archimedes engines burning liquid oxygen and methane, each producing about 165,000 pounds of thrust at sea level, for roughly 1.45 million pounds combined. The airframe is carbon composite with a captive fairing, and it flies from Launch Complex 3 at Wallops Island, Virginia. Rocket Lab is targeting $50 million to $55 million per launch and expects boosters to fly 10 to 20 times each. For comparison, SpaceX's Falcon 9 carries about 17,000 kilograms in reusable configuration and lists at roughly $70 million.
The order book has kept growing. Second-quarter revenue hit a record $234 million, with third-quarter guidance of $250 million to $265 million. Total backlog was a record $2.36 billion as of June 30, up 137% year over year, with launch backlog around $940 million — nearly double the $476 million at the end of 2025. A 20-launch Electron deal with Japan's Synspective, signed September 30, was the largest commercial Electron contract in company history and pushed the launch backlog past 100 missions. The September 25 flight was Electron's 97th mission and the 18th launch of 2026.
Rocket Lab has raised $1.94 billion through an at-the-market stock offering to help fund its planned acquisition of Iridium Communications. Iridium shareholders approved the deal on September 24, and closing is expected in mid-2027. Iridium generates roughly $870 million to $884 million in annual revenue at about 72% gross margin, and management argues the combination will lift cash flow and profitability. The risk is SpaceX's spectrum buying spree to expand Starlink, which could sharpen competition in Iridium's market.
Sell-side coverage has not turned hostile. TD Cowen's Gautam Khanna cut his price target to $90 from $120 on October 9 while keeping a Buy rating, and consensus targets sit in the $105 to $109 range, with Stifel's $150 the Street high. Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool note the stock trades at roughly 52.6 times sales against 3.1 for the S&P 500, a multiple that leaves little room for schedule slippage. Investing.com attributed part of the selloff to a softer macro backdrop and lingering concerns about insider selling.
Consensus expects a loss of 6 cents a share on revenue of $238.53 million when Rocket Lab reports around November 9, against $155.05 million a year earlier. The bigger test is the first-quarter 2027 first-stage tank assembly and test, and the launch date that follows it.