Beijing's Premier in Tashkent, Washington's in Samarkand: Central Asia's Busy Week

Beijing's Premier in Tashkent, Washington's in Samarkand: Central Asia's Busy Week

Li Qiang lands in Tashkent for a two-day visit

Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrived in Tashkent on Oct 17 for a two-day official visit, holding talks with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov. Speaking on arrival, Li called the two countries good friends and good partners, pointing to 34 years of diplomatic relations, Xinhua reported. On the Uzbek side, Mirziyoyev described relations with China as being in a "golden age."

A stack of agreements, from customs to e-commerce

After the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of cooperation documents covering trade and the economy, education, customs, health and poverty reduction; e-commerce, climate and media files were also signed during the visit. Li called for deeper cooperation in energy, minerals, finance and connectivity, and in artificial intelligence and aerospace, and for cultural centres in each country to open as soon as possible. Both sides said they would coordinate positions within the China-Central Asia mechanism and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Only Tashkent put numbers on the table

Where the numbers come from matters. Beijing's readouts of the meetings carried no figures. The figures came from the Uzbek presidency, which said the portfolio of projects "backed by firm agreements" has reached nearly $60 billion and that more than 6,000 joint ventures involving Chinese companies now operate in Uzbekistan. Reporting on that readout noted it does not say who compiled the total, over what period, or how much of it has actually been built.

Trade: $16.1 billion in 2025, 23 per cent of Uzbek turnover

Chinese official data put two-way trade at $16.1 billion in 2025, up 17.9 per cent year on year. Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee counted $13.17 billion of bilateral trade in January-August 2026, up 30.1 per cent, with China accounting for 23 per cent of the country's total foreign trade turnover. The Uzbek president's press service has said the two sides intend to lift trade to $30 billion in the coming years.

The railway Beijing keeps promising

The centrepiece of the visit was a rail line that has been discussed for more than two decades. Li said China stands ready to ensure the "high-quality implementation" of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, and to support more capable Chinese firms investing in Uzbekistan. Tashkent said it welcomed Chinese investment and was ready to speed up construction. The line is about 532 kilometres long and estimated to cost roughly $4.7 billion, with operations expected by 2030; construction formally began in December 2024. China holds 51 per cent of the project company, with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan on 24.5 per cent each, and a syndicate of Chinese banks extended a roughly $2.3 billion, 35-year loan in December 2025. Some 305 kilometres run through Kyrgyzstan, about 40 per cent of it in tunnels and bridges — around 120 kilometres in total. In September, the first tunnel on the route, the 209.6-metre Kos-Dobo North No. 2, was completed.

Mirziyoyev reaffirms One China and security cooperation

Politically, Uzbekistan reaffirmed its support for the One China policy and pledged continued cooperation with Beijing against terrorism, separatism and extremism. Li noted that next year marks the 35th anniversary of diplomatic ties. Xi Jinping and Mirziyoyev met in August to set the direction for the relationship, and Xi has described the railway as a major transport artery carrying the region's development hopes.

Rubio arrives in Samarkand with 200 executives

Beijing's visit had barely ended when Washington's plane landed. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Samarkand on Oct 18 for his first trip to Central Asia, accompanied by more than 200 business executives representing over 100 American companies, among them Boeing, Citibank and Franklin Templeton. On Monday he is due to attend the C5+1 ministerial with the five Central Asian states and launch a first round of an expanded strategic partnership dialogue with Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov. He then travels to India, with stops in Mumbai and Jamnagar — his second official visit there this year.

Minerals, not sentiment, drive the American push

Trade, energy and critical minerals top the US agenda. American trade with Uzbekistan passed $1 billion for the first time last year; Uzbek officials say about $7 billion of a $35 billion portfolio of commercial agreements with the United States has been implemented. The two countries signed a critical minerals pact in February, and in June the US International Development Finance Corporation launched a joint investment platform for Uzbekistan. RFE/RL quoted one business executive saying US firms fear that "if they don't intensify their business activities in the region, China will soon swallow everything there."

Tashkent plays both sides

For Central Asian governments, the week looks less like an alliance and more like leverage. Al Jazeera quoted regional analysts saying the states are hunting for a wider set of partners rather than switching camps, because Russia's security role and China's trade weight cannot be replaced by one visit. Uzbekistan's first nuclear power plant, built with Russia's Rosatom in the Jizzakh region, will have 2,110 megawatts of capacity, while China is already the country's largest trading partner and main source of imports.

What to watch next

Watch Monday's C5+1 ministerial and what, if anything, is signed; whether the expanded US-Uzbekistan dialogue produces concrete projects; and whether the railway hits its 2026 milestones. For Beijing, one thing is already done: in the same week Washington flew 200 executives into Central Asia, China lengthened its own list of commitments with Tashkent.