Nasdaq Futures Climb as Buyers Tiptoe Back Into the AI Trade

Nasdaq Futures Climb as Buyers Tiptoe Back Into the AI Trade

Futures up 0.4% as dip-buyers test the water

Stock futures rebounded on Sunday night as traders cautiously re-entered shares linked to the artificial intelligence trend after last week's rout. CNBC put Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.4%, Dow futures 0.2% higher, or 110 points, and S&P 500 futures up 0.2%. Readings later in the session were stronger: Yahoo Finance and Stocktwits reported that as of 11:30 p.m. ET, Nasdaq futures were up more than 1%, S&P 500 futures 0.8% and Dow futures 0.5%, while AI Stock Wire logged Nasdaq-100 futures up 1% at 29,693.75, S&P 500 futures up 0.6% at 7,749.50 and Dow futures up 160 points, or 0.3%, at 52,374. Reuters had S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures up 0.8%.

A 4.5% weekly drop, and a broken winning streak

The bounce follows a bruising week. CNBC reported the S&P 500 lost nearly 2% last week, its biggest weekly decline since late June, while the Nasdaq tumbled 4.5%, snapping a four-week winning streak. On Friday the Nasdaq fell another 2.14% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index closed at 11,137.29 after an eighth straight losing session, its longest streak since October 2008, according to Capital Brief. CNBC also cited data showing the 20 most valuable global AI and semiconductor stocks shed more than $1 trillion in market value over the week.

Yields and AI debt, not earnings, drove the selloff

CoreWeave fell as much as 16% on Oct. 14, with bond yields closing in on 15%, CNBC and Startup Fortune reported. Bloomberg, citing Tradeweb, put the yield on its 2031 notes near 16% at 79.15 cents on the dollar, with five-year credit default swaps around 1,000 basis points — implying roughly a 63% chance of default within five years, against about 30% a year earlier. September CPI came in at 3.7%, and the implied odds of an October rate hike rose from about 22% to about 40%, Reuters reported. The Fed meets Oct. 27–28.

Anthropic's $16.8 billion quarter, read as a warning

Anthropic told investors in San Francisco on Oct. 14 that third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, up 45% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter and $4.7 billion in the first, and that it was profitable on an adjusted basis for a second straight quarter while generating $1.70 in revenue per $1 of compute spending, the Financial Times and Reuters reported. Q2 had grown 145% on the quarter, per ROIC.ai. Business Standard quoted Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley calling the news "somewhat negative," noting that credit default swap prices for hyperscalers have risen sharply in recent weeks.

This week's earnings are the real exam

LSEG IBES expects S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth of more than 30%, and LSEG estimates Meta's earnings per share up 460% year over year, Tesla's down 14.5% and Netflix's up about 40%. Kalkine consensus has Netflix reporting after the close on Oct. 20 with EPS of $0.82 on revenue of $12.87 billion; Meta on Oct. 21 with EPS of $6.76 on roughly $63.3 billion in revenue; and Tesla after the close the same day.

Asia keeps falling, with the Nikkei down 1.65%

CNBC reported Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.65%, the Topix 1.12%, South Korea's Kospi 1.29% and the Kosdaq 0.93%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.37%. Bloomberg data showed the Nikkei down as much as 2.3% intraday, about 10% below its Oct. 6 high of 70,683.98. China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.55% after third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, according to MarketScreener.

Cheaper oil and a bond rally give equities room

Oil slipped after Washington waived some sanctions and tariffs on Russia: Brent fell 1.6% to $108.06 a barrel and US crude 0.7% to $100.70, Reuters reported, while the Economic Times noted Brent had settled Friday at its highest since May 19 and touched $110 during the session. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 5.0645% after its biggest weekly drop in more than eight months.

Retail buys, funds bleed, banks step back

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits tilted bullish, with traders saying they would add to beaten-down names such as Nebius. Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data showed global fundamental long-short funds lost money every day last week, down 2.9% in the week to Oct. 15, Reuters reported. Goldman's basket of regional AI hardware stocks fell 11% last week, the steepest slide since mid-July, the Taipei Times reported. Quartz reported that JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are retreating from fully underwriting a $5 billion loan package for Volta Infrastructure Holdings, and that the IMF puts hyperscalers at 10% of global investment-grade bond issuance, up from under 1% in 2024.

What to watch next

Whether the bounce holds depends on capex guidance in this week's results from Meta, Tesla and Netflix, and on whether the Fed raises rates again on Oct. 27–28 — both feed straight into AI's financing costs and valuation math.