Maine Senate Race: What Voters Are Saying About Collins vs. Jackson

Maine Senate Race: What Voters Are Saying About Collins vs. Jackson

Maine's U.S. Senate seat is shaping up as one of the country's most closely watched contests, with five-term Republican Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson, a former logger and state legislator. Nonpartisan handicappers rate the race a toss-up, with both parties fighting for a seat that could decide control of the Senate.

Polls Show a Race Within the Margin of Error

Multiple recent surveys find Collins and Jackson separated by only a few points. The New York Times/Siena poll (Sept. 15–22) had Collins at 49% and Jackson at 46%. The University of New Hampshire poll (Sept. 17–21) had Jackson at 51% and Collins at 47%. UMass Lowell/YouGov (released Sept. 24) showed Jackson 48% to Collins 43%. Rasmussen (Sept. 8–10) found Jackson 46% to Collins 45%. The AARP poll showed Jackson leading 50% to 47%, with 3% undecided, but Collins led 53% to 44% among voters 50 and older while Jackson led by 25 points among voters under 50. Suffolk University found Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%, with 4% undecided in York County's bellwether. Marist (Oct. 1–4, 1,505 registered voters) showed Jackson 51% and Collins 47%, a gap roughly the survey's 3.8-point margin of error; independents favored Jackson 52% to 45%.

State vs. National Priorities Divide Voters

A CBS News poll found Maine voters split on whether state or national priorities should guide their choice. In debates, Collins emphasized her Washington independence, saying she is "not exactly his favorite senator," while Jackson argued she only breaks with the GOP when her vote is not needed, pointing to her vote to advance Trump's tax and spending bill.

Rural Voters Weigh Economic Anxiety

In Aroostook County, the shared birthplace of both candidates, voters worry about heating oil, gasoline, and Canadian tariffs. One local voter said he flips between the two: "I do like Susan Collins. She has gone against Trump here and there, but she doesn't do it enough." Collins has carried Aroostook County by double digits in all five of her Senate victories; Jackson's campaign is betting that streak ends this cycle.

Age Gap Could Decide the Outcome

Voters 50 and older, the bloc most likely to turn out, favor Collins by nine points. Jackson leads by 25 points among voters under 50, a group that historically votes at lower rates. Marist also found 57% of voters expect Collins to win, versus 41% for Jackson.

"Shut Up" Debate Moment and the Abortion Shadow

In the final debate, a protester interrupted Collins, who called the demonstrator "obviously one of Troy's supporters"; Jackson responded "Oh, shut up" and said he did not know the person. Jackson later said he had no regrets. Separately, the Supreme Court's 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade shadows Collins' first race since that ruling: a voter who once backed Collins because of Planned Parenthood's endorsement says she now supports Jackson.

Nov. 3: Turnout and Pocketbook Issues Will Decide It

The election is Nov. 3. With margins inside the error range, the outcome likely hinges on turnout among older voters and the salience of pocketbook issues. Whether Jackson can break Collins' Aroostook County winning streak will be a key indicator to watch.