Talarico Leads Paxton as Texas Early Voting Tests a Battleground Senate Race

Talarico Leads Paxton as Texas Early Voting Tests a Battleground Senate Race

New TPOR survey puts Talarico four points ahead

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas race for the U.S. Senate as early in-person voting continues, according to a Texas Public Opinion Research poll cited by FOX 4 News. The survey, conducted October 15-18 among 969 likely Texas voters, put Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 47% and Libertarian Ted Brown at 2%, with a margin of error of 3.9%. The pollster said Talarico's lead narrowed by one point since last month and by two points since August.

Hobby poll shows a two-point race inside the margin

A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll described by KERA News showed Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Brown at 3% and 3% undecided, with a margin of error of 2%. USA Today reported that the survey interviewed 2,000 likely Texas voters October 10-14, with a margin of error of 2.19 percentage points. The same report said 60% of independents backed Talarico and 32% backed Paxton.

Emerson and CBS News surveys agree it is close

Other October surveys tell a similar story. Emerson College Polling reported 48% for Talarico, 46% for Paxton, 1% for Brown and 5% undecided; with leaners included, the split moved to 49% to 48% for Talarico, with Brown at 3%. CBS News, reporting its survey with YouGov of 1,492 registered Texas voters October 8-16, gave a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.5 points for likely voters, also describing a toss-up.

State officials confirm record rolls and two voting weeks

Newsweek, citing the Texas Secretary of State, reported 19,041,684 registered voters ahead of the November 3 election, an increase of 553,518, or about 3 percent, from last November. Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 30, and the deadline for mail-ballot applications to be received is October 23. Voters may cast early ballots at any early voting location in their county of registration.

Fundraising gap highlights a grassroots strategy

The money race is lopsided. CNBC reported that Talarico's campaign said it raised 64 million dollars in the third quarter, compared with 18 million dollars announced by Paxton and two affiliated committees. The campaign said more than 1.3 million people have donated, that 97% of contributions were 100 dollars or less, and that it has raised more than 134 million dollars since launching. Paxton's team called its 18 million-dollar quarter its best so far.

Senate control and Texas independents are both at stake

The seat matters beyond Texas because it could help decide control of the U.S. Senate. The polls point to independents and soft Republicans as the pivotal groups, with Talarico consolidating Democrats and winning independents by a wide margin. Brown's 1% to 3% share, plus the remaining undecided voters, could still swing a race this tight. Favorability ratings remain net negative for both men in the USA Today-cited data.

Turnout and late deciders will decide the outcome

What comes next is turnout. With most October polls within the margin of error, the result is likely to turn on early-vote participation, suburban independents and how the small undecided bloc breaks in the final days. Both campaigns are expected to concentrate on mobilization through October 30 and on Election Day, November 3.