El-Sayed Leads Rogers by Six Points in Michigan's Pivotal Senate Race

El-Sayed Leads Rogers by Six Points in Michigan's Pivotal Senate Race

A New Detroit News/WDIV Poll Puts El-Sayed on Top

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 51.4% to 45.1% among likely voters in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, with 3.6% undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by the Lansing-based Glengariff Group. The live-operator telephone survey interviewed 600 likely voters from Oct. 19 through Oct. 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. About 85% of respondents were reached by cellphone and 15% by landline.

Young Voters and Independents Drive the Lead

The poll's most striking finding is El-Sayed's dominance among young voters. He takes more than 77% of voters younger than 30 and 59.5% of those in their 30s, while Rogers wins nearly 54% of seniors 65 and older and 57% of voters ages 40 to 49. Pollster Richard Czuba called the youth numbers "wild," noting that when Rogers faced Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024, she carried the 18-to-29 group by only 3 points. El-Sayed has also seized the lead among independents, 45.5% to 40%, reversing a deficit from just before Labor Day, when Rogers led that group by roughly 42% to 28%.

Surprise Strength Up North, Persistent Weakness With White Voters

In a result that raised eyebrows, El-Sayed leads Rogers 51.5% to 45.6% among respondents from the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan, a region that has voted for Trump for years. Rogers, meanwhile, leads among White voters 54% to 43%. El-Sayed's personal ratings stand at 42% favorable to 45% unfavorable, with 12% holding no opinion, and he is viewed slightly more favorably than Rogers among independents.

An Open Seat That Could Decide the Senate

The seat is open because Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, and both parties treat the Nov. 3 contest as pivotal to control of the chamber. El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director who later led Wayne County's health department, defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in this year's Democratic primary by less than a percentage point. Rogers, 63, is an Army veteran and former FBI agent who served 14 years in Congress, chaired the House Intelligence Committee, and lost a Senate bid two years ago by barely 19,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast.

A Lead, but Turnout Will Settle It

El-Sayed's 6.3-point margin exceeds the poll's 4-point error band, yet other surveys show a tighter race. An Oct. 15-18 Marist poll had him ahead 52% to 45% among registered voters but only 50% to 48% among likely voters, and a late-September Fox News poll pegged the race at 50% to 49%. Among voters who say they will definitely vote on Nov. 3, the Glengariff survey narrows to 50.7% for El-Sayed and 46.5% for Rogers. With 3.6% of likely voters still undecided, the final week is a turnout battle.