CNN's Four-State Senate Polls Put Democrats Within Reach of the Majority

CNN's Four-State Senate Polls Put Democrats Within Reach of the Majority

Democrats hit 49 percent in all four battlegrounds

New CNN/SSRS polls of likely voters in four key Senate races, released October 29, find Democratic candidates at 49 percent in every one of them. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49 percent to 42 percent, and in Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent — both leads outside the margin of error. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 49 percent to 45 percent, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 45 percent, with CNN calling both races too close for a clear leader.

A unified base in Michigan, a cracking red wall in Texas

In Michigan, the quintessential swing state, the Democratic base appears to have unified around El-Sayed while disaffected Republicans drift away from Rogers. Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades, gives Talarico a narrow edge powered by Paxton's deeply negative image and strong support among the state's Black, Latino and Asian voters who backed Trump in 2024.

Collins chases a sixth term as deep-red Kansas wobbles

Collins, seeking a sixth Senate term, is the only Republican senator running in a state Trump lost in 2024. In Kansas — a state Trump carried by 16 points — likely voters still say they prefer Republican control of the Senate, yet view Marshall broadly unfavorably, with voters saying their choices are about Marshall more than about Hamilton.

The math still demands a net gain of four seats

The arithmetic remains steep: Republicans hold 53 seats and can lose up to three while keeping the majority through Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote, so Democrats must gain a net four seats among the 35 on the ballot in the November 3 election. That means winning at least two of the Trump-won states such as Alaska, Ohio and Texas.

Independent polls mostly agree as early voting winds down

Other surveys broadly corroborate the CNN findings. An Emerson College poll puts Talarico ahead in Texas 48 percent to 46 percent, and a Cook Political Report battleground poll has him up 49 percent to 44 percent. A Fox News poll finds Collins and Jackson tied at 49 percent apiece in Maine, while a Marist University poll gives Jackson a 2-point lead. With the Michigan and Kansas debates behind them, the campaigns now enter the final sprint as early voting closes.