Florida's Next Governor Faces Three Tests: Insurance, Property Taxes and Data Centers

Florida's Next Governor Faces Three Tests: Insurance, Property Taxes and Data Centers

Whether Republican Byron Donalds or Democrat David Jolly wins the Florida governor's race, the same three files will be waiting on the next governor's desk: homeowners insurance up 75% in five years, a property-tax amendment needing 60% voter approval, and 27 cities and counties that have hit pause on data centers. One hits wallets, one hits local budgets, and one hits the power grid. None can be dodged.

Premiums up 75% in five years, voters demand answers

Homeowners insurance is the issue voters raise most on the campaign trail. A report from the nonprofit Coalition for an Insurable Future found Florida homeowners' premiums rose 75% between 2021 and 2025, nearly double the national average. Newsweek reports the state's average premium climbed from $7,928 in 2025 to $8,471 in 2026, up 6.8% and still the highest in the nation. Tampa Bay 28 reports voters pressing both candidates on insurance and affordability, while a FOX 13 poll found 43% trust Donalds more on insurance against 38% for Jolly.

Tallahassee claims reforms work, most policyholders disagree

The official line is that the 2022-23 tort reforms have turned the market around. The Sun Sentinel quotes reform supporters saying Florida once held less than 10% of the nation's claims but nearly 80% of its insurance lawsuits; since the reforms, more than 20 insurers have entered the state, regulators cite S&P data showing Florida was the only state with an average rate-filing decrease in 2025 (down 0.92% versus a 5.5% national increase), and a state actuarial analysis found homeowners could be paying 72% more without the changes. Yet a survey by the South Florida Sun Sentinel, Orlando Sentinel and the University of North Florida, cited by Yahoo Finance, found 55% of 1,511 policyholders see no sign of improvement, still paying more for thinner coverage.

A catastrophe fund versus tort reform, opposite prescriptions

The candidates' remedies point in opposite directions. Donalds says he would keep the DeSantis-era tort reforms and restructure the state's insurance regulation. Jolly proposes a state-backed catastrophe fund that strips hurricane and wind risk out of private policies; WGCU reports he estimates homeowner rates would fall 60% to 70%, leaving private insurers to cover fire, theft and similar non-wind losses. One side says never undo the reforms, the other wants a new machine entirely, and the choice will shape millions of household bills.

Amendment 3 needs 60%, outcome hangs on undecideds

The second test is Amendment 3, on the November 3 ballot. WUSF reports it needs at least 60% approval to pass, raising the homestead exemption on non-school taxes from about $51,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, indexed to inflation from 2029, while cutting the annual assessment-growth cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. Gov. Ron DeSantis says it would wipe out non-school property taxes for about 60% of homesteaded owners and open a path to full elimination. A Florida Politics poll puts support at just 50%, leaving the outcome to undecided voters, while first responders warn of gutted local service budgets.

Data centers paused across the state, a new tiebreaker

The third test is data centers. Jacksonville.com reports Donalds acknowledging that 27 Florida cities and counties have imposed moratoriums or are considering them, driven by electricity and water demand, noise and aquifer protection, and notes a new state law barring utilities from passing grid-upgrade costs for large data centers onto households and businesses. The Orlando Sentinel reports conservative Lake County enacted a 90-day pause on new data centers. A FOX 13 poll gives Jolly a 41%-to-37% trust edge on the issue; Jolly backs a one-year statewide moratorium with his mantra of "housing, health care, education and no data centers," while Donalds says local governments should have the final say.

Whoever wins inherits the bills and the power lines

Polls show a dead heat, with one Florida Politics survey at Donalds 46% to Jolly 44%. But whoever moves into the governor's mansion in Tallahassee will face the same premium curves, the same referendum result and the same electricity meters. The next governor's first-year record will likely be written on these three issues.