A House Democrat's Cold Shoulder Turns Michigan's Senate Race Into a Party Unity Test

A House Democrat's Cold Shoulder Turns Michigan's Senate Race Into a Party Unity Test

A toss-up for an open seat that could decide the Senate majority

Michigan's open Senate contest to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters has become one of the pivotal races of the midterms, rated a toss-up by independent analysts. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official faces Republican former Representative Mike Rogers, with the general election set for Tuesday, November 3. Both parties treat the seat as decisive for control of the upper chamber.

A bitter August primary decided by about a point, with some $30 million in outside money

El-Sayed defeated moderate four-term Representative Haley Stevens of Birmingham in the August 4 Democratic primary by roughly one percentage point, about 48.5 percent to 47.5 percent, after Mallory McMorrow, who had dropped out, drew around 4 percent. Much of the fight centered on Israel policy, with AIPAC's super PAC reported to have spent roughly $30 million in the primary, about $10 million of it supporting Stevens. Stevens conceded the morning after the primary and said she had called El-Sayed to offer her full support.

Endorsed but absent: Stevens keeps her distance in the campaign's final days

Stevens has not campaigned alongside El-Sayed since a Democratic unity breakfast shortly after the August 4 primary, and the two have reportedly not spoken in recent months. Asked on CNN's "State of the Union" on October 25 whether she fully backed the nominee, Stevens answered: "Look, I'm on the Democratic ticket. I can't say that I agree with everything that's gone on." She pivoted instead to touting gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson and House candidates. On October 28 she reiterated her support for El-Sayed and said she hoped he would win, but declined to say whether she regretted endorsing him.

Stevens faults the nominee's foreign-policy focus and his Israel-Iran debate answer

Stevens pointed specifically to El-Sayed's first debate with Rogers, where he was asked whether Israel or Iran poses the bigger threat to the United States and called it a "ridiculous" question. "I don't want to debate who's the enemy of the United States — it's very clear that Iran is," Stevens told CNN's Dana Bash. She questioned his outreach to Black voters and suggested he was too concentrated on foreign affairs. She also denounced a pro-El-Sayed grocery-prices ad blaming Israel for rising costs, writing that "this type of fearmongering about Israel is wrong," a spot the El-Sayed campaign has distanced itself from.

Her fiance crosses party lines, accusing El-Sayed of endangering Jewish safety

Days before the November 3 election, Stevens' fiance, Jason Turkish, a Jewish Democratic donor, told The Detroit News he intends to vote for Rogers, saying he had become convinced over the last three months that El-Sayed is antisemitic. "We have never seen a candidate for U.S. Senate act so recklessly toward the safety of Jews in the community as we have seen from Abdul," he said, adding that "every time he talks about genocide, Jews get death threats." He cited El-Sayed's remark that Israel is not a U.S. ally, his debate refusal on the Iran-versus-Israel question, and his association with streamer Hasan Piker. Turkish attended an October 28 Republican Jewish Coalition event for Rogers in Birmingham featuring Senator Ted Cruz. David Kramer, Stevens' Senate campaign chair, has also said he will back Rogers.

Democrats split over whom to blame as tensions spill into the open

The intraparty friction has drawn competing reactions. Lonnie Scott, a Democratic consultant in Michigan, called Stevens' commentary "not helpful" and said "Haley should be a team player," while adding that El-Sayed "should be doing more outreach." Representative Debbie Dingell countered: "I'm sick and tired of people blaming Haley." Senator Elissa Slotkin, who endorsed and campaigned for El-Sayed, has accused Rogers and his allies of Islamophobic bigotry. El-Sayed himself has appealed for unity, with his campaign saying "our tent is big enough for all those who wish to join it" and framing the race as a fight over Senate control and a check on the president.

Polls show a narrow El-Sayed lead powered by an extraordinary youth margin

A Detroit News/WDIV Glengariff Group survey published October 27 found El-Sayed at 50.7 percent and Rogers at 46.5 percent among voters who said they will definitely vote, a 4.2-point gap with about 3 percent undecided; among all likely voters the split was 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent. El-Sayed draws more than 77 percent of voters under 30 and 59.5 percent of those in their 30s, while Rogers wins nearly 54 percent of seniors 65 and older and 57 percent of voters in their 40s. An October 15-18 Marist poll had him up 52 to 45 among registered voters, while an October 21-22 InsiderAdvantage survey showed a 47-to-46 squeaker.

The closing test: winning back the Stevens coalition without losing the base

Rogers has spent months courting constituencies that backed Stevens in the primary, above all Black voters in the Detroit area and Jewish voters. Stevens carried Detroit with more than 60 percent of the vote, making El-Sayed the first Michigan Democrat since Gretchen Whitmer in 2018 to win a statewide primary without the state's largest city; Stevens also won seven of the 12 large counties with Black populations above 11 percent by an average of 8.5 points, . El-Sayed, meanwhile, is working to hold young voters and Arab American voters drifting back from Donald Trump while closing the deal with Stevens supporters. Whether disaffected Democrats turn out on November 3 is likely to decide both the seat and possibly the Senate majority.