Seven Toss-Ups, One Senate Majority on a Knife's Edge Democrats lead narrowly in all seven races that will likely decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to Washington Post averages of recent high-quality polls, but most of those leads sit within the margin of error with days to go before the November 3 midterms. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, since a 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President JD Vance. Thirty-five seats are on the ballot.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Senate contests in seven states as toss-ups: Alaska, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Maine. A separate open seat in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by about 10 points, is rated as favoring Democrats. If Democrats sweep all seven toss-ups and hold the seats where they are favored, they would secure their largest Senate majority since the Obama administration. If Republicans sweep all seven, they would keep their 53-47 majority, offsetting the North Carolina loss by picking up the Democratic-held seat in Michigan.
The scale of the swing since 2024 is striking. President Donald Trump carried Texas by 14 points, Kansas by 16, Iowa by 13, Ohio by 11 and Alaska by 13 last year; Democrats now lead polling averages in those states by roughly 1 to 5 points. Michigan has moved from Trump plus one to Democrats plus four, and Maine from Democrats plus seven in 2024 to Democrats plus two in the current polling average. Holding Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff raised $98 million through June 30 and entered July with nearly $43 million on hand, and Michigan is described as Democrats' top priority.
Republicans are outspending Democrats in most of the battlegrounds, with especially large advantages in Texas and Ohio. In Ohio alone, Republicans are set to spend $71 million more than Democrats between Labor Day and Election Day, according to AdImpact. Yet a top Republican super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, has pulled its money out of North Carolina and redirected it to Kansas, signaling pessimism about the former and growing concern about holding the latter. As of October 22, traders on Kalshi gave Democrats a 68 percent chance of winning Senate control.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico averages 49 percent to Republican Ken Paxton's 47 percent in a CNN Poll of Polls, with a new Fox News survey showing a tie; separate polling reported by The New York Times had Talarico up by six. In Ohio's special election, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 52 percent to 47 percent in Fox News polling. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed averages 49 percent against Republican Mike Rogers at 47 percent, with no clear leader. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 45 percent. New CNN polling released October 29 found that in every state but Maine, at least one in eight likely voters could still change their minds, while more than nine in ten Maine voters say they are locked in.
The Democratic path runs through North Carolina plus any three of Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio or Texas, combined with successfully defending Michigan, their only toss-up seat. Forecasters at Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball have recently moved races in Kansas, New Hampshire, Alaska, North Carolina and South Carolina in the Democrats' direction. With five toss-ups sitting in states Trump won by double digits, turnout and late-breaking undecided voters, many of them Republican-leaning in Texas and Kansas, will decide who controls the chamber for Trump's final two years.