Democrats Seize the Senate Map Days Before the Midterms

Democrats Seize the Senate Map Days Before the Midterms

CNN polls put Democrats ahead in Michigan and Texas

Five days before the midterms, CNN released a battery of Senate polls conducted by the nonpartisan firm SSRS. Democrats led beyond the margin of error in Michigan and Texas, while the races in Maine and Kansas showed no clear leader. The findings, published October 29, sketch a credible Democratic path to a Senate majority.

Texas stunner: Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%

In Texas, surveyed October 20-27 among 923 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.2 points, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 43%, a six-point gap. A Democratic win would flip a seat in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1988 and that President Donald Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024.

Michigan firewall: El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 42%

In Michigan, surveyed over the same dates among 768 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.7 points, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican former Representative Mike Rogers 49% to 42%, a seven-point gap. That lead is up from three points in CNN polling in early September, a sharp move in a seat Democrats must hold in any Senate math.

Campaigns split on spin as other polls show tighter races

CNN's detail pages emphasize Talarico's strength with Latino likely voters at 63% and with voters of color overall at 64%, including 22% of voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024. El-Sayed has consolidated Democrats, taking 95% of Democratic likely voters, up from 90% in September. Other surveys show closer contests: a Fox News poll released October 21 had Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each, down from a 51%-49% Talarico edge a month earlier, while a Texas Southern University poll of 2,000 likely voters taken October 21-25 and released October 29 had Talarico ahead 49% to 47%, with 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown and 1% undecided.

Favorability gap drags down Republicans

The likability numbers are lopsided. In the CNN polling, 24% of Republicans held an unfavorable view of Paxton, against just 2% of Democrats holding a negative view of Talarico. Rogers' unfavorable rating hit 50% among Michigan likely voters, up from 42% in September. Texas Southern found Talarico at 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable, versus 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable for Paxton. A Glengariff Group poll for WDIV-TV and the Detroit News, released October 27, had El-Sayed ahead 51% to 45%, with El-Sayed taking 45.5% of self-identified independents to 40% for Rogers and 15% undecided; around Labor Day, Rogers had led among independents by roughly 42% to 28%.

Why it matters: the majority runs through these two states

Texas is the Republicans' nightmare scenario: a flip there would mark Democrats' first statewide win in the state in three decades. Michigan is the Democrats' must-hold firewall long seen as Republicans' best pickup chance. Forecaster Nate Silver's model on October 29 gave El-Sayed an 80.7% chance of winning against 19.3% for Rogers. The RealClearPolling average for September 28 to October 27 stood at El-Sayed 48.8, Rogers 45.6.

What comes next: independents and turnout decide

Polls are not votes. The Fox News tie, the two-point Texas Southern margin inside its 2.19-point error band, and the 15% of Michigan independents still undecided all point to turnout as the decider. Democrats need Latino and younger voters to show up; Republicans need conservatives, rural voters, and suburban women to come home. The November 3 general election will say whether these leads were realignment or mirage.