Cook Moves 14 More Races Toward Democrats Days Before the Midterms

Cook Moves 14 More Races Toward Democrats Days Before the Midterms

Fourteen shifts, all blue, four days out

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved 14 more races toward Democrats on Friday, October 30, just four days before the midterm Election Day. It is the forecaster's fourth straight pro-Democrat adjustment in recent weeks, following moves of 18 races on October 9, 11 on October 16, and 19 on October 23.

Three House races enter the toss-up column

Twelve of the 14 shifts are House contests. Three moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up: Colorado's 5th District held by Rep. Jeff Crank, Pennsylvania's 1st District held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and the open seat in South Carolina's 1st District. Fitzpatrick holds one of the only Republican seats carried by Kamala Harris in 2024.

Red turf cracks in Florida and Indiana

Three more seats went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, including Florida's 7th and 9th Districts and Indiana's 5th District. In Florida's 9th, Democratic Rep. Darren Soto is tied with Republican Dan Green after a May redraw made the seat friendlier to Republicans. In Indiana's 5th, Rep. Victoria Spartz is struggling to consolidate Republican voters. The other six moves: North Carolina's 5th and 9th, New Jersey's 2nd and Washington's 5th each slid from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, while Pennsylvania's 8th (Bresnahan) and Ohio's 9th (Kaptur) moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.

Two Senate races follow the same direction

The remaining two shifts are Senate races: Florida moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, and Nebraska from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. "But given the dismal national political environment for Republicans — and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) — we see Democrats as the slight favorites," wrote Cook's Senate and Governors editor Jessica Taylor.

A 61.2% disapproval backdrop for Republicans

Cook points to a punishing national environment. Its poll tracker had Trump's disapproval at 61.2% as of October 15. Earlier in the week, Cook also moved two governor's races toward Democrats — Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up and Nebraska from Likely Republican to Lean Republican — boosting Democratic odds of winning a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.

What it means: the House looks decided, the size is not

More than 218 House seats are now rated at least Lean Democrat, the threshold for a majority, and Cook projects a Democratic majority of between 227 and 240 seats, a net gain of 12 to 25. If Democrats swept all 18 toss-ups on top of the seats they already favor, they would reach 240 — their largest majority since 2009. Republicans are being forced to spend on defense in previously safe territory.

What comes next: Tuesday decides the Senate question

Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3. The House question is now about the size of the Democratic majority rather than who wins it. The Senate's seven toss-ups will decide whether Democrats can net the four seats needed to flip the chamber, and governor's races in states like Kansas will test how far the red-state drift extends. Ratings are not results, and turnout can still surprise.