Early Voting Surges Past 43 Million as Senate Battlegrounds Light Up

Early Voting Surges Past 43 Million as Senate Battlegrounds Light Up

A national wave: 43 million ballots already cast

More than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots ahead of Election Day on November 3, nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022, according to an Associated Press analysis of election data. The figures cover 47 states and Washington, D.C., compared with 48 states plus the capital four years ago. In states that release party registration data, about 6.8 million registered Democrats and 5.2 million registered Republicans had cast early ballots. Those tallies do not capture every early voter nationwide, nor do they reveal which candidates got their votes.

Texas leads the surge with 6.3 million early votes

The surge is sharpest in Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House and governor's races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50 percent increase. The Senate contest pits Democrat James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Republican Governor Greg Abbott seeks reelection against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. The state's two-week in-person early voting period ends Friday. Through Thursday, the total topped 6.4 million ballots, already far past the state's prior midterm early-voting record of 5.5 million in-person ballots in 2018.

Harris County jumps as big urban counties post double-digit gains

County-level numbers show the scale of the rush. In Harris County, home to Houston, 862,700 people had voted as of Wednesday, up from 564,500 at the same point in 2022. The first four days of early voting brought more than 248,000 ballots in Dallas County, up 81 percent from 2022, alongside gains of 65 percent in Harris County in-person votes, 54 percent in Tarrant County, 55 percent in Collin County and 65 percent in Denton County, according to local reports.

Maine, Michigan, Kansas and the Carolinas all run hot

The battleground bump extends well beyond Texas. Early voting is up more than 30 percent from the same point in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, all states with competitive Senate races. In Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins faces former Democratic state Senate President Troy Jackson, early voting is up 44 percent. Michigan has logged roughly 409,000 more early votes than in 2022, a 32 percent increase, in the first midterm since voters approved statewide in-person early voting in November 2022. Kansas has more than doubled its 2022 pace, and South Carolina, with open races for governor and U.S. Senate, is up 83 percent.

A 53-47 Senate majority is on the line

Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority in a midterm whose battleground map has stretched deep into long-Republican territory. Democrats are defending tough seats while hunting upsets in states former President Trump carried comfortably, including South Carolina, where he won by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024. An earlier AP check two weeks from Election Day found Texas up 74 percent versus 2022, with Maine, North Carolina and Ohio each up more than 30 percent.

Georgia nears two million votes in a marquee Senate fight

Georgia is another focal point. Nearly two million voters, more than 25 percent of registered voters, had cast ballots as of Monday, according to the secretary of state. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Representative Mike Collins; Ossoff is the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. Early voting there runs through Friday, October 30, with Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.

Big numbers, limited predictions

Analysts caution that early-vote totals measure enthusiasm, not outcomes. Democrats hold an edge in released party-registration tallies, but big states such as Texas do not break ballots down by party, and registration is an imperfect predictor of candidate choice. Turnout composition on Election Day itself will decide whether the Senate map actually shifts.

What to watch as early voting closes

With early voting ending Friday in states including Texas and Georgia, attention turns to Election Day turnout. If the battleground pace holds through November 3, the fight for Senate control could tighten considerably. Either way, participation is already running well ahead of 2022, giving both parties a burst of momentum heading into the final days.