South Carolina's Safe Red Seat Is Now a Coin Flip

South Carolina's Safe Red Seat Is Now a Coin Flip

A 48-48 tie shocks the reddest map

South Carolina's U.S. Senate race is effectively tied. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Oct. 28 puts Republican incumbent Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews at 48 percent each, with 3 percent undecided. The survey reached 707 likely voters Oct. 19-26, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 18 points in 2024. Now it is a tossup.

"A little nervous": Graham braces for six more days

At a campaign event in Aiken on Tuesday night, a supporter tapped Graham on the shoulder and said: "Don't lose the Senate." She replied, "I'm trying real hard not to." Inside the ballroom, mostly to herself, she added: "Man, I'm so tired. Six more days. I can do it." Trump has visited the state twice in two weeks to boost Graham, framing the contest as a referendum on his second term.

The Republican pitch: Trump's heir in her brother's seat

Graham is running as Trump's handpicked successor. She opposes abortion rights, says she fully trusts Trump on tariffs and the war with Iran, and argues that anyone in the country illegally should be deported "immediately." The Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican Senate super PAC, has pledged $5 million to the race. Republican strategists say Graham will still win, pointing to a tough national environment but a Republican-leaning undecided vote.

Why Andrews is surging: independents and a cash machine

Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, leads Graham 57 percent to 37 percent among independents and peels away 7 percent of Republican voters, according to the Times/Siena poll. The same poll finds 55 percent of South Carolina voters disapprove of Trump's job performance, against 42 percent who approve. Party identification in the sample is 38 percent Republican, 27 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. Money favors Andrews: Graham holds less than $2 million, while Andrews raised more than $9 million from July through September for a campaign total of $19.7 million.

From agency director to senator in three days

Lindsey Graham was on a glide path to a fifth term, winning the June 9 Republican primary with 56.8 percent, when he died July 11 of an aortic tear at age 71. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister Darline Graham on July 13, the same day Trump endorsed her; she was sworn in July 14 as South Carolina's first woman senator. A political newcomer and former director of the state agency for the blind, she won the Aug. 25 special primary runoff with 52.5 percent against Rep. Ralph Norman after no candidate won a majority Aug. 11. She later admitted she was "not that informed on national security," fueling doubts about her readiness.

What comes next: a fractured GOP and Senate control

Five days out, Republicans are openly split. One anonymous House Republican called the closeness "embarrassing," saying the party won the seat by 18 points before and Graham is "dragging Rs down the ticket." Forecasters still favor her: DDHQ gives Graham a 67 percent chance to win. In the same Times/Siena poll, Republican Alan Wilson leads Democrat Jermaine Johnson 51 percent to 44 percent for governor. An Andrews upset would give South Carolina its first Democratic senator in 28 years and could decide the Senate majority.