More Than 50 Million Ballots Already Cast as US Midterms Enter Final Days

More Than 50 Million Ballots Already Cast as US Midterms Enter Final Days

A record 51 million votes with three days to go

With three days left before Election Day on November 3, early voting in the 2026 US midterm elections has already surpassed the previous midterm record. Data analyzed by the University of Florida's Election Lab shows that more than 51.3 million ballots had been cast as of midday Saturday, compared with 45.9 million early ballots cast before Election Day in 2022. More than one in five registered voters has already voted.

Texas votes early in huge numbers, nearing 2018 levels

Texas, central to Democratic ambitions this cycle, has seen more than 7.4 million early votes, about 39 percent of registered voters, nearly matching the modern midterm high-water mark set in 2018. That compares with 5.5 million early votes in Texas in 2022, a 31 percent turnout rate, and 9 million in the 2024 general election, a 49 percent rate. In the 2020 general election, Texas recorded 9.7 million early votes, a 57 percent turnout rate. In Harris County, which includes Houston, 862,700 people had voted as of Wednesday, well above the 564,500 at the same point in 2022. An Associated Press analysis found early voting up 74 percent versus 2022 in Texas, more than doubled in Kansas, and up over 30 percent in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.

Democrats bank more ballots, but the mail advantage is narrowing

In states that report party registration, registered Democrats have cast roughly 43 to 45 percent of early ballots, Republicans about 31 to 32 percent, and voters with no party affiliation about a quarter. Of the 49.6 million early votes cast as of Friday evening, close to 22.9 million were returned mail ballots alongside 26.8 million in-person votes. Al Jazeera put the mail-ballot total at about 23 million. Analysts caution that party registration does not reveal which candidates received those votes.

Democrats shift from mail to in-person voting

Democrats are changing how they vote, requesting fewer mail ballots than in past elections but returning the ones they request more quickly, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis conducted with the University of Pennsylvania. The shift reflects doubts about the reliability of the US Postal Service: Democratic confidence that mail ballots will arrive on time has fallen from 86 percent before the 2024 election to 60 percent, according to Marist polling, while Republican confidence is unchanged.

A surge in early votes does not guarantee higher turnout

Charles Stewart, a political science professor at MIT, cautions that record early voting may not translate into higher overall turnout, because many of those voting early would have voted on Election Day anyway. He also notes that the Democratic edge in mail voting is smaller than in 2022 as more Democrats vote early in person, while the Republican advantage in early in-person voting could narrow.

Control of Congress on the line Tuesday

The midterms will decide control of the US Congress, with closely contested Senate races in several states. National polls put support for Democrats at 51.5 percent against 43.1 percent for Republicans. President Donald Trump unsuccessfully tried to curb mail-in voting before the elections, and the Supreme Court rejected his effort. With in-person early voting periods ending over the weekend, remaining voters will head to the polls on Tuesday.

Discussion: Would you rather vote early or show up on Election Day itself, and what matters more to you, convenience or the experience of voting with everyone on the day?