Texas Senate Tossup Tightens as Trump Swaps Rallies for Tele-Rallies

Texas Senate Tossup Tightens as Trump Swaps Rallies for Tele-Rallies

Early vote tops 6.7 million as rivals sprint statewide

Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico crisscrossed Texas on Oct. 31 in the final days of a tossup U.S. Senate race. Early voting ran from Oct. 19 to Oct. 30 and drew more than 6.7 million ballots. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Nationally, early ballots were approaching 50 million heading into the weekend, compared with about 112 million total votes in the 2022 midterms.

Three polls show Talarico up two points, still tied

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Oct. 22 found Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, a 2-point lead inside a 3.1-point margin of error. A Texas Southern University survey released Oct. 29 showed Talarico leading 49% to 47%, also 2 points. That poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters from Oct. 21 to Oct. 25 with a 2.19-point margin of error, making the race a statistical tie. A University of Houston Hobby School survey of 2,000 likely voters from Oct. 10 to Oct. 14 also found Talarico slightly ahead, and a Cook Political Report battleground poll released Oct. 21 showed Talarico leading.

Age gap defines a race neither candidate is loved in

The Texas Southern poll found 48% of likely voters view Talarico favorably and 51% unfavorably, while 42% view Paxton favorably and 57% unfavorably. Voters under 35 favor Talarico by a wide margin, while voters 55 and older favor Paxton by a sizable margin. Decision Desk HQ's polling average has Talarico ahead by 2.5 points, giving him a 56% chance of flipping the seat in mid-October and a 59% chance to Paxton's 41% in its latest update.

Paxton warns Texas loss sinks America, Talarico hits ethics

Paxton, the longtime state attorney general who defeated Republican Sen. John Cornyn earlier this year with Trump's help, told supporters in Fort Worth on Saturday morning that the left keeps getting more radical and the election will go down to the wire. He said Texas must reject every dangerous idea Democrats are putting forward, adding that if Republicans lose Texas, they lose America, and asking supporters to pray for Texas and for him. Talarico hammered Paxton as a corrupt product of a rotten system, pointing to his indictment and impeachment history and his Trump endorsement.

Trump calls in six tele-rallies from Florida golf club

Trump stepped away from in-person rallies on Saturday in favor of virtual events, calling into six tele-rallies after spending the morning and early afternoon at the golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The White House released few details. The calls are a departure from his rally speeches, which often stretch for 90-plus minutes. Trump had blitzed the closing weeks of October with rallies across the country, including in states he won comfortably in each of his three campaigns. On Oct. 19, the first day of early voting, both Senate candidates rallied in Fort Worth, with Paxton addressing more than 200 people and Talarico speaking to more than 1,000 supporters in a high school gymnasium.

Forecasters favor Democrats in a state blue has not won in 32 years

Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas in 32 years, and more than 4.5 million Texans had already voted one week into early voting. The Senate contest has become a key measure of voter frustration with Trump's leadership and his loyalists in the Republican Party, with forecasters and polls pointing to a closer-than-expected finish. Discussion: If you were deciding this Senate race, how much weight would you give a candidate's personal ethics versus which party would control the Senate, and what would tip the balance for you?