Affordability Is the Issue That Could Decide the Texas Senate Race

Affordability Is the Issue That Could Decide the Texas Senate Race

A dead heat with days to go

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are running neck-and-neck for a Texas U.S. Senate seat, with polls inside the margin of error days before the November 3 vote. The outcome could help decide which party controls the Senate in January, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats for a majority.

Cost of living dwarfs every other issue

A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 8-16 among 1,492 registered Texas voters found Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49% among likely voters, inside a plus-or-minus 3.5-point margin of error. Cost of living was the top issue for 56% of likely voters, followed by immigration and the border at 23%, health care at 12% and taxes at 9%. Among voters who picked cost of living, Talarico led 65% to 35%. A Fox News poll released October 21 later had the race tied at 49% each, after Talarico led 51%-49% a month earlier.

Gas, diesel and power bills all bite

Gasoline prices in Texas have jumped more than a dollar from last year to around $3.71 per gallon in late October, per AAA, while diesel in Texas recently hit $6 a gallon, a state record, according to AAA data cited in campaign coverage. The federal gas tax stands at 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline and 24.4 cents per gallon of diesel. Both candidates now promise relief at the pump: Paxton backs a permanent repeal of the federal gas tax, while Talarico calls for a temporary pause on gas and diesel taxes.

Data centers become a new electricity villain

Electricity is the second front. Nearly 400 data centers are operating, planned or under construction in Texas, requiring nearly 17 terawatt-hours of electricity a year, the equivalent of powering 1.6 million homes, according to Electric Choice figures cited by the Texas Tribune. Talarico's campaign blames billions in tax handouts Paxton backed for data-center firms; Paxton promises to keep oil and gas regulation light, raise domestic production, and offer tax deductions for medical bills, home purchases and healthy-living costs.

Corruption versus party loyalty

Talarico frames the race as an affordability crisis caused by a corruption crisis, a line he repeated at an October CNN town hall in Fort Worth. Paxton, campaigning in Fort Worth and Tarrant County, says voters tell him the same thing everywhere: gas, groceries and electric bills are up, paychecks are not. Polls show more voters see Talarico as having the right character for the Senate, while Paxton's support leans on the Republican nomination and backing from President Donald Trump.

Early vote surge points to a turnout verdict

Early voting ran October 19-30, and more than 6.8 million Texans cast ballots in the first 11 of the 12 days, over 40% more than at the same point in the 2022 midterms, per the Texas Secretary of State's office. Modeled estimates put Democratic turnout at about 2.83 million, or 52.8% of Democratic voters, versus about 2.66 million Republicans, or 47.3%. Total spending in the race has topped $500 million including outside groups, making it the country's most expensive Senate contest on record. Texas Democrats have not won statewide in 32 years; whether anger over prices finally breaks that streak is the question that will tip the scales.