North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate election has entered its final 40 days before Election Day. Polling from several organizations shows Democratic candidate and former governor Roy Cooper continuing to lead Republican candidate and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. The margin varies among polls, ranging from 5 to 15 percentage points, but no publicly released poll shows Whatley ahead. The campaign is focused on the cost of living, energy bills, healthcare costs, transgender issues, and the record of recovery after Hurricane Helene. Both candidates have repeatedly attacked the other's positions and record at their respective events.
An AARP poll conducted September 17–20 found that 53% of respondents said they definitely or probably supported Cooper, or leaned toward voting for him on Election Day, while 42% expressed the same level of support for Whatley. Another 1% supported “another candidate,” and 5% were undecided. The poll surveyed 1,115 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
A YouGov poll showed Cooper leading by 11 points, with 52% support compared with 41% for Whatley. Cooper's advantage was more pronounced among independent voters: 58% supported Cooper and 33% supported Whatley, while 9% of independents were undecided or supported another candidate. Newsweek reported that Cooper's performance among independents reversed Trump's earlier margin of support by 29 percentage points.
A poll by a North Carolina news organization showed Cooper leading Whatley 51% to 41%. Another 2% chose a different candidate and 5.4% were undecided. Among voters firmly aligned with a party, Cooper received support from 95% of Democrats, while Whatley received support from 88% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters favored Cooper by 21 points. The gender gap was substantial: Cooper led by 19 points among women but trailed by 2 points among men. Among voters under 45, Cooper led by 39 points; among those aged 45 and older, Whatley held a narrow 2-point lead. Cooper led in every region of the state except eastern North Carolina, where Whatley was ahead. Among the 5.4% who were undecided, follow-up questions found that 2.2 percentage points leaned toward Whatley, 0.3 points leaned toward Cooper, and the remaining 2.8% had no preference. After allocating those leaners, the race stood at Cooper 52% and Whatley 44%.
A High Point poll showed Cooper leading Whatley 50% to 42%. A Quantus Insights poll put Cooper's lead at 5 points. A carolinajournal.com report said Cooper's lead had widened to 15 points in September 2026. An Elon University poll also showed Cooper maintaining a double-digit lead. WUNC News reported that Whatley criticized a poll showing Cooper with a large lead, calling it a “garbage poll.” A poll reported by WCNC showed Cooper ahead by 8 points.
With 40 days remaining before the 2026 general election, both candidates have intensified their attacks at campaign events. Whatley held an event at a private Christian school in Pittsboro, where he criticized Cooper's support for transgender issues, including allowing transgender women to participate in women's sports. Cooper vetoed a bill in 2023 that would have prohibited such participation, but Republican state legislators overrode his veto and enacted the ban. Whatley also pointed out that Cooper vetoed three anti-LGBTQ bills in 2023 that legislators later enacted by overriding his veto. They included the Fairness in Women's Sports Act, which prohibits transgender female athletes from participating on girls' high-school and college sports teams; the Parents' Rights Act, which prohibits instruction on gender identity or sexual orientation in grades K–4 and requires schools to notify parents when children change their names or pronouns; and a bill restricting gender-affirming care for minors.
Cooper held an event at a tobacco receiving station in Wilson, where he spoke with local farmers and criticized Whatley for supporting President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the war with Iran, arguing that those policies had raised costs. Cooper's economic plan includes lowering electricity and utility bills. He said electricity costs in North Carolina had risen 22% since 2020. His proposals include ensuring that data centers pay the full cost of the electricity they consume so that those costs are not passed on to consumers; encouraging major technology companies to build their own energy sources to reduce utility costs for consumers; prohibiting utility companies from disconnecting service during dangerously hot or cold weather; and modernizing the power grid. In February, Duke Energy had asked customers to conserve electricity because the grid was under strain in cold weather. Whatley added an energy-and-economy section to his website, saying: “America's economic strength depends on reliable, affordable energy and reining in reckless spending in Washington. By practicing fiscal responsibility and unleashing American energy, we can empower American workers, create high-paying jobs, achieve energy independence, and build lasting prosperity for every American.”
The candidates also differ on healthcare. Cooper has proposed a series of healthcare measures, including preventing surprise medical bills, designating emergency ground ambulance services as an essential health benefit, capping annual out-of-pocket prescription costs, requiring hospitals to automatically enroll eligible patients in charity care, lowering drug and medical costs to prevent medical debt, and ensuring price transparency. Whatley has emphasized fiscal responsibility and unleashing American energy. His website says that fiscal responsibility and expanding American energy would empower workers, create high-paying jobs, and achieve energy independence.
The candidates have also clashed over recovery from Hurricane Helene. CBS17.com reported a dispute between Whatley and Cooper over their records on Helene recovery in the North Carolina Senate race. WRAL reported that, two years after Hurricane Helene, a political fight over responsibility for the recovery effort was taking shape. Cooper criticized Whatley's support for Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran, saying they had increased costs, while Whatley attacked Cooper's position on transgender issues.
The Washington Post reported that Republicans appeared deeply concerned about the North Carolina Senate race, a state that had previously been considered reliable for the party. Axios reported on Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley competing for the vacant Senate seat in North Carolina. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that Trump would campaign for Michael Whatley, who is seeking the North Carolina Senate seat and facing former governor Roy Cooper. The New York Times reported on a Republican under pressure who continued to support Trump, saying, “I still support the guy.” Reports also indicated that national media were circulating speculation about whether Republicans would continue spending their limited resources on the North Carolina Senate race as the campaign entered its final weeks.
This is an open-seat Senate election in North Carolina. Election Day in the state is in November 2026, and 40 days remained before the vote at the time covered by the report. Voters should bear in mind that although polls show Cooper ahead, differences in margins of error and samples can produce fluctuations. Independent and unaffiliated voters may be decisive because voters firmly aligned with either party are relatively stable. Cooper had 58% support among independent voters, compared with 33% for Whatley. Among unaffiliated voters, Cooper led by 21 points.
As the race enters its final 40 days, several developments deserve attention. First is the polling trend. Although no public poll currently shows Whatley ahead, some recent polls show his deficit narrowing to single digits, an improvement from earlier polls that showed double-digit gaps. Second is the allocation of Republican resources. Reports circulating in national media about whether Republicans will continue investing in the North Carolina Senate race could affect campaign dynamics. Third is the candidates' debate over key issues: the cost of living, energy bills, healthcare expenses, transgender issues, and the Hurricane Helene recovery record will all influence voters' decisions. Fourth is the behavior of independent and unaffiliated voters, who may determine the outcome. Finally, attention should be paid to debate plans before Election Day. WUNC News reported on whether there would be a debate in the North Carolina Senate race, but no confirmed debate arrangements were available at the time. Voters should follow official voting information and the candidates' policy positions to make informed decisions on Election Day.