On September 23, McDonald's unveiled a decade-long, $8.5 billion investment program called "Next" at its investor day: restaurant remodels, employee training, and new menu items, all aimed at winning back customers who have been drifting away. About $5 billion will be spent in the next three and a half years, including financial support and rent relief for franchisees.
The market was unimpressed. Shares fell nearly 5% on the day, extending a slide of roughly 22% this year — on track for the worst annual performance since 2002. CEO Chris Kempczinski added to the gloom, projecting "slightly negative" U.S. sales for the coming quarter after last quarter's 0.8% growth, the slowest in more than a year.
McDonald's traced the traffic decline to a straightforward cause: price. Since the pandemic, ingredient, labor, and fuel costs have pushed menu prices steadily upward. A Big Mac cost about $2.24 in 2000 — roughly $4.27 in today's dollars. In 2026, the average Big Mac across the U.S. sells for close to $7, and a viral post showed a Big Mac meal priced at $18 at one location.
Lower-income diners, the most price-sensitive customers, were the first to pull back. Melius Research analyst Jacob Aiken-Phillips noted that McDonald's has lost its status as the go-to value option — a sit-down family meal at chains like Texas Roadhouse now costs about the same. "Fast food is no longer cheap" has become a problem for the whole industry.
The heart of "Next" is a pair of connected tools. The first is a pricing engine that combines each restaurant's transaction data with local market data to make item-level price recommendations. The second is a customer-engagement engine that targets the chain's 220 million 90-day active loyalty members with personalized offers designed to bring them in more often and upsell them to pricier items.
The targets are ambitious: a 1.5% gain in market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030, while pushing operating margins into the low-to-mid 50% range. But the pricing engine has already triggered a backlash. Earlier this week, a group of franchisees sued McDonald's over the AI pricing tool, asking a court to certify a class action and bar the company from enforcing agreements that restrict competition.
About 95% of McDonald's 14,000 U.S. restaurants are run by franchisees, who officially control their own pricing. On the August earnings call, Kempczinski conceded that recommendations are not commands: only 60% of U.S. restaurants were offering his proposed menu of 10 items under $3. "That's not something we just flip the switch on," he said. "It requires conversations with franchisees."
The resistance is understandable. McDonald's requires its restaurants to remodel roughly every 10 years, and the new layout costs franchisees about $800,000 per location over time. Headquarters wants lower prices to rebuild traffic; franchisees need to protect their margins. The tension sits squarely in the middle.
While the long transformation plays out, McDonald's is leaning on its promotional machinery to stabilize traffic. Starting October 6, the long-running "Monopoly" campaign returns to U.S. restaurants, this time delivered through the company's own app with a $1 million cash grand prize.
For longer-horizon investors, the dividend remains the anchor. More than a month ago, the company announced its 50th consecutive annual dividend increase, lifting the quarterly payout 4% to $1.93 per share, payable December 15, 2026.
The real test comes in three weeks, when McDonald's reports detailed third-quarter results and it will become clearer whether foot traffic has stopped falling. Until then, Wall Street analysts are already trimming their earnings forecasts — the $8.5 billion check has been written, and only real sales will tell whether it buys back McDonald's old reputation for value.