Tropical Storm Rachel made a surprising northward turn overnight and is now bearing down on the U.S. West Coast. Forecasters expect its center to make landfall near the California-Mexico border late Saturday night or early Sunday. California has placed all of San Diego County under a tropical storm watch — only the second such watch in state history. Sunday morning's high tide in San Diego Bay is projected at about 8.2 feet, matching the all-time record. Rachel's advance waves have already battered the Southern California coast: the Long Beach Peninsula boardwalk lies in pieces, and Newport Beach has declared a local emergency.
Earlier this week Rachel was a Category 2 hurricane; it has since weakened to a tropical storm. But Thursday night its track shifted unexpectedly north, putting California in the crosshairs. The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for Southern California, covering all of San Diego County. AFP notes it is only the second tropical storm watch ever issued in California — the last tropical storm landfall in Southern California was in 1939.
The number says it all about rarity. California's cool coastal waters and strong upper-level wind shear usually strip tropical systems of their strength before they can push north. This year is different: a historically strong El Niño plus an ongoing marine heat wave have left the eastern Pacific unusually warm, giving Rachel the fuel to head north. Even weakened at landfall, the storm threatens heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding, meteorologists warn.
The most-watched moment is Sunday morning's high tide. NOAA's storm surge model projects it at about 8.2 feet in San Diego Bay — matching the record set in November 2015, when high tides flooded streets in San Diego's Midway District and swamped businesses along Paradise Creek in National City. Tide gauges at La Jolla and Los Angeles are expected near all-time record values. The weather service says "confidence in impactful coastal flooding is high," with tides topping seven feet (2.1 meters) each morning for days.
The coast took a beating before landfall. Around 9 a.m. Friday, as high tide peaked, the Long Beach Peninsula was hammered: large sections of the boardwalk shattered, debris floated out to sea, and seawater surged over seawalls into streets and patios, leaving one beachfront home on the verge of collapse. The city red-tagged two buildings (no entry) and yellow-tagged three more (brief entry for belongings only), and rushed roughly 1,000 sandbags to repair a breached bulkhead — the neighborhood's last line of defense, left exposed after Hurricane Marie stripped its sand over Labor Day weekend.
In Orange County, Newport Beach's Balboa Peninsula went under saltwater: streets flooded, vehicles were stranded or disabled, and police warned residents to move cars to higher ground. Friday evening the city declared a local emergency; crews are rebuilding berms, running pumps, and opening tide valves.
Forecasters describe the danger in two acts. Act one — already underway — is surf and coastal flooding: a coastal flood warning for Los Angeles County beaches runs through 3 p.m. Sunday (through Tuesday around Newport Beach), and a high surf advisory from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Sunday brings 4- to 7-foot waves with strong rip currents. Act two arrives with landfall: gusty winds and heavy rain, with flash-flood risk across San Diego and Riverside counties and tropical-storm-force gusts possible in desert areas.
Half of this storm's destructive power comes from an elevated baseline. A super El Niño and a marine heat wave have lifted sea levels 1 to 2 feet above normal along the San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, and Ventura county coasts, with a Kelvin wave adding to the elevation; Rachel's long-period swells — 16 to 18 seconds apart, carrying enormous energy — keep pushing water ashore. Back-to-back systems (Hurricane Polo in late September, Hurricane Marie over Labor Day) already hollowed out beaches and coastal defenses.
Officials urge residents to stay off south-facing beaches this weekend, never drive through flooded streets, and watch National Weather Service updates — especially San Diego's Sunday morning high tide, which could make the record books.