UN Report: World Must Cut Emissions 18% in Four Years to Find Our Way Back

UN Releases Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on October 21, setting out a "lowest possible" overshoot scenario in which peak warming around mid-century is limited to 1.7–1.8°C and global temperatures return to 1.5°C or below by 2100 with a 50% chance. To get on that pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. UNEP says the 1.5°C window has closed, but "overshoot is not surrender" — the overshoot can still be kept small and short, with a eventual return below 1.5°C.

"Overshoot Is Not Surrender," Guterres Says

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message accompanying the report: "Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible — and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century." He stressed that the new UNEP report shows what it will take: cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, compared with 2025 levels. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen urged countries to "pull out all the stops" and accelerate cuts using existing technologies.

US Paris Exit Widens the Gap

The report says projections are worse than last year for two reasons: the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and revised estimates of historical emissions. New nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted since last year's report "have made a negligible difference for these projections." In other words, new pledges on paper barely changed the trajectory. UNEP also notes that even full implementation of existing climate commitments would cut emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035 — far short of what is needed to return to 1.5°C.

Current Policies Point to 2.8°C This Century

On current policies, warming this century could reach 2.8°C; if all NDCs are delivered with similar continued effort, warming would be limited to 2.6°C; even in the most optimistic case, with all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets achieved, warming would only be limited to 2.1°C. Achieving the lowest overshoot scenario requires global net-zero CO2 emissions around 2050 and large-scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. That means deep transformation across energy, industry, transport and land use, while developing countries and climate-vulnerable communities face thinner buffers and longer recovery times.

COP31 Looms; Countries Must Table Stronger Pledges

The report lands ahead of COP31 in Turkey next month, intended to inform decision-makers. UNEP notes the global "implementation gap" for 2030 — the difference between projected emissions under current policies and those expected if NDCs are fully implemented — has narrowed compared with last year, but this does not change the overall conclusion: existing commitments remain seriously inadequate. Countries need to table stronger NDCs at and after COP31, moving cuts from paper to the ground. The report stresses that large-scale CO2 removal will be an indispensable part of returning below 1.5°C.