The closely watched U.S. Senate race in Maine between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson may not be decided on Election Night. A New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena Research Institute poll found Jackson leading Collins by six percentage points among likely voters. Maine’s ranked-choice voting system could extend the count if no candidate receives more than half of the first-choice votes.
The Portland Press Herald reported on November 1 that Jackson had the support of 51% of respondents, compared with 45% for Collins, in a survey of 714 likely Maine voters. The poll’s margin of error was 4.7 percentage points. The result represented a nine-point shift from the September version of the same survey, when Collins held a three-point advantage.
The poll reflects voter preferences during the survey period, not the final result. The race remains competitive, and polling estimates can differ from actual turnout and vote totals.
USA Today reported that Maine uses ranked-choice voting in statewide races with more than two candidates. In addition to Collins and Jackson, the Senate contest includes six declared write-in candidates. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the count proceeds to ranked-choice tabulation.
Under the system, voters can rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate reaches the required threshold in the initial count, the process uses voters’ later preferences to redistribute ballots as candidates are eliminated. The process continues until a candidate reaches the required level of support.
Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows told USA Today that a ranked-choice tabulation was highly possible because of the close polling and the number of write-in candidates. If the process is required, it could take several days to complete.
The timing matters because the initial vote count may not determine the final winner. The distribution of voters’ second and later preferences can affect the outcome after the first-choice count. The final result will depend on the official ballots and the state’s tabulation process.
The Portland Press Herald reported that the economy was the top issue identified by respondents. Jackson had a slight advantage over Collins on trust in handling the cost of living, while Collins held a slight edge on immigration. The poll also found Jackson with higher support than Collins among unenrolled voters.
Those figures describe the views of people surveyed and should not be treated as a forecast of the final vote. The race’s outcome will depend on who actually turns out and how voters rank candidates on their ballots.
The contest has attracted national attention because its result could influence which party controls the Senate. Collins is a longtime Republican senator, while Jackson is the Democratic nominee. A polling lead does not establish that a seat has changed party control, and ranked-choice tabulation could alter the order of candidates after the initial count.
The immediate questions are whether one candidate can secure more than half of the first-choice vote and, if not, how voters’ later preferences will be distributed. The final outcome will be known only after Maine completes the required counting and certification.