With Georgia’s gubernatorial election reaching Election Day, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson were virtually tied in the final poll released by InsiderAdvantage. WSB-TV reported that Bottoms received 49.03% support and Jackson received 49%, while 2% of likely voters remained undecided. The difference between the two published figures is 0.03 percentage points, not a margin large enough to suggest a meaningful lead. FOX 5 Atlanta also reported on the survey, but described the gap as 0.3 percentage points, which does not match the raw figures it published, 49.03% and 49.0%. Calculated from those figures, the difference is 0.03 percentage points.
The survey included 2,500 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 1.96 percentage points. The 0.03-point difference between the candidates is far smaller than that margin of error. It would therefore be misleading to describe Bottoms as holding a statistically meaningful advantage. Both WSB-TV and FOX 5 Atlanta characterized the contest as effectively tied. Georgia Public Broadcasting also described the governor’s race as deadlocked in its final-day campaign coverage. A poll measures voter preferences at a particular moment. It cannot determine who will turn out, how undecided voters will ultimately vote or what the final count will show.
The contest pits Bottoms, a former mayor of Atlanta, against Jackson, a healthcare entrepreneur. The Associated Press reported that Bottoms supports expanding Medicaid eligibility, increasing pay for teachers and other public employees, and limiting data-center development and the expansion of artificial-intelligence surveillance technology used by law enforcement. Jackson has proposed phasing out Georgia’s personal income tax, raising public-employee pay and expanding healthcare coverage through partnerships with private insurers. The AP also reported that Jackson has used substantial personal wealth to finance his campaign, while Bottoms has emphasized her public-service record and a different approach to state policy.
Georgia Public Broadcasting and Atlanta News First reported that both candidates spent the final day before the election traveling around the state and making last appeals to voters. Bottoms held events in several areas, while Jackson scheduled an intensive statewide itinerary. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution described the contest as a close and consequential matchup, noting that Jackson’s heavy personal spending had not produced a clear polling advantage. Reuters had previously listed Georgia among the gubernatorial races to watch, noting that a Bottoms victory would make her the first Black woman elected governor in the United States.
The most important takeaway from the final survey is not that one candidate has a narrow lead, but that the candidates’ support levels are statistically indistinguishable. Sampling error, turnout, the decisions of undecided voters and the geographic distribution of ballots could all affect the result. Earlier reporting by Axios on the candidates’ debate showed that healthcare, data centers, surveillance technology and economic policy were among the issues separating them. As voters cast ballots on Election Day, the close polling picture still has to be tested against actual votes and official counting. A pre-election survey should not be treated as an election result.