Decision Desk HQ has forecast that Democrats could flip Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Maine in the 2026 midterm elections, potentially putting the party in position to regain control of the chamber. The Hill reported on November 2 that the forecasting organization gave Democratic candidates James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska a 61% chance of winning. It assigned Maine Democrat Troy Jackson a 63% chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins.
DDHQ’s model projected that Democrats could win a 52-48 advantage in the Senate. It gave Democrats an overall 64% probability of winning control of the chamber, compared with 36% for Republicans. These are forecast probabilities, not vote counts or confirmed election outcomes.
The Hill also noted that several Senate contests remained within polling margins of error. That means the races could still be statistically close even when a forecasting model assigns one candidate a higher probability. The model’s estimate is not a guarantee that a particular candidate will win.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is challenging the Republican candidate in a race that has become more competitive than many observers expected. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. DDHQ gave both Democratic candidates a 61% chance of victory.
If Democrats win either race, the result could alter the overall Senate balance. But the outcome will depend on turnout, candidate performance and state-specific political conditions. A forecast probability summarizes the model’s assessment of those factors; it does not establish that a seat has already changed party control.
In Maine, DDHQ gave Democrat Troy Jackson a 63% chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins.
The Maine race is therefore one of several contests that could influence the chamber’s future. The model’s estimate may change as new information becomes available, and the result will ultimately be determined by votes cast and counted in the state.
The Hill connected the improved Democratic outlook to declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump and voter concerns about the cost of living. The report also cited the war involving Iran and tariff disputes with Canada as factors that had increased prices for goods such as gasoline and fertilizer, particularly affecting agricultural states.
The headline description that races could “flip blue” refers to the forecast that Democrats have a chance to win seats currently held by Republicans. It does not mean that the election has been decided. Turnout, voter composition and late campaign developments can still affect the outcome.
Control of the Senate will be known only after states complete voting, counting and certification. Until then, DDHQ’s probabilities are a snapshot of the model’s assessment on November 2, not a substitute for the election results.