The Texas governor’s race became one of the closely watched statewide contests in the 2026 midterm elections. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. CNBC reported on the eve of Election Day that prediction-market traders still favored Abbott, but Hinojosa had made substantial gains in the markets over the preceding months. These prices reflect the views and trading activity of market participants. They are not traditional opinion polls and should not be read as a direct measure of voter preference.
CNBC cited Kalshi contracts that implied roughly a 60% chance of an Abbott victory and a 40% chance for Hinojosa on November 2. Hinojosa’s implied chance on Kalshi had risen from 8% in mid-July to 40% on the eve of the election. On Polymarket, her odds had climbed from as low as 5% in late July to 39% on Monday. Those figures can move as contracts trade, and platforms may have different rules, participants and levels of liquidity. They are not equivalent to a representative survey of Texas voters.
The race is also being watched as a possible test of public resistance to the rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence data centers. Abbott had previously promoted major technology investment in Texas. In November 2025, he touted a $40 billion Google investment plan that included three new data center campuses in the state. But concerns about electricity demand and the local effects of large facilities have grown. Abbott ordered an audit of data center projects seeking to connect to the state grid and later paused approvals for related permits while the state reviewed its existing queue. Hinojosa has called for an immediate moratorium on new data center projects until lawmakers establish stronger safeguards.
CNBC reported that early voting in Texas had already topped 7.7 million ballots, with in-person early voting having ended on October 30. The early-vote total shows that a large share of the electorate had voted before Election Day, but it does not by itself indicate which candidate is ahead. Party composition, geographic turnout, mail ballots and votes cast on Election Day will all shape the final result.
Prediction-market contracts are traded by participants who put money behind possible outcomes. Their prices can be interpreted as market-implied probabilities, but the platforms do not use the sampling and weighting methods associated with traditional political polling. CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. That disclosure is relevant when evaluating the report’s use of market data. Ultimately, the result will be determined by ballots cast and official counting, not by the odds displayed on trading platforms.