History Says Midterms Could Hand the S&P 500 a Year-End Rally

History Says Midterms Could Hand the S&P 500 a Year-End Rally

Multiple analyses show the S&P 500 has a strong habit of rallying into year-end in US midterm-election years: since 1950, the fourth quarter of midterm years averaged a 6.6% gain, positive in 16 of 19 years.

The Strongest Quarter of the Presidential Cycle

Dow Jones Market Data, via MarketWatch's "Chart of the Day" card, shows the average S&P 500 return in the fourth quarter of a midterm election year is 6.6% — far above the 2.5% to 3.9% seen in Q4 of the other years of the presidential cycle. Since 1950, Q4 was positive in 16 of 19 midterm years, making it the strongest quarter of the four-year cycle by nearly double the next-strongest.

Never Lower 12 Months After a Midterm

The Motley Fool's tally is even bolder: in its current 500-company form (since 1950), the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after each of 19 midterms — a 100% hit rate — averaging about 15%. Robert W. Baird calculated an average 32% rally from the midterm-year low.

2026 Is Following the Script

Phil Rosen of Inc., citing FactSet data, notes the S&P 500 touched its weakest level of the year in March at around 6,400 and is already up more than 20% since. If the historical pattern holds, another ~11% could come before Q1 2027.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's longer look shows that since 1937, midterm election years themselves averaged 9.2% — weaker than the 13.3% in other years, but still positive on average.

Analysts Caution: History Guarantees Nothing

Analysts broadly caution that the election calendar is not the driver — earnings, growth, inflation, rates, and valuations matter more. FactSet projects 29.5% Q3 2026 earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, while oil above $100 a barrel and rising bond yields are headwinds. Historical statistics are a guide, not a promise, and dispersion across stocks and sectors remains wide.