Middle East Oil Exports Climb Back to Prewar Levels
Middle East oil exports climbed back to prewar levels by mid-October 2026, roughly eight months after the Iran war began. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, Middle East oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative regional routes averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, surpassing the prewar average of 23.3 million. The Financial Times headlined its report "Middle East oil exports climb back to prewar levels," and The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler, reported that Persian Gulf exports have topped prewar volumes despite escalating Iranian attacks in the strait.
DW reported that excluding Iran, Gulf crude exports rose back above prewar levels in late September: on four days in the final week of September, daily exports reached 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels, above the prewar average of about 18 million. The National's data showed combined flows of more than 24.5 million barrels per day for the week ended Oct. 18, slightly above the 24.4 million recorded for the week ending Feb. 22, just before the war. Iran's own shipments remain constrained by a U.S. maritime blockade.
The recovery was driven not by a ceasefire but by rerouting and risk appetite. Saudi and Emirati pipelines helped redirect supplies: in September about 40% of non-Iranian crude leaving the Gulf bypassed Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war. Kpler data shows at least 63 very large crude carriers now participate in the shuttle trade, carrying oil from Gulf terminals through Hormuz before transferring it to long-haul tankers outside the strait; in August more than 70% of crude crossing the strait was transferred between tankers off Fujairah or Sohar, Oman. U.S. forces now guide ships through Hormuz in broad daylight, and CENTCOM said U.S. forces helped Gulf partners move more than 100 million barrels of crude through the strait over the past week. Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi estimated that reselling Iraqi crude can generate an additional $20 per barrel versus before the war, about $40 million on a supertanker cargo; three such voyages could repay the $100 million cost of a secondhand tanker.
The export recovery has not brought down oil prices. IEA data put the cost of shipping crude from the Middle East Gulf to Asia above $37 per barrel, more than five times prewar levels. Kpler figures show shipping a single barrel from the Gulf to China reached $37.37, accounting for 25% of a barrel's price versus 5% under normal conditions. A Commonwealth Bank report put Gulf-to-China VLCC freight at about $36 per barrel versus roughly $7 before the war. On Oct. 21 Brent broke above $111 intraday before sliding to about $108, and WTI fell toward $97, down more than 2%. Freight has become a central market concern, with diesel facing tighter transport conditions.
The recovery comes with continued risk. The Wall Street Journal tallied about 30 ship attacks in October, accounting for 20% of all attacks during the war, per reports from the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre and maritime security firms; Windward senior analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said October incidents account for 20% of ships attacked during the war. Insurance and freight costs have surged, leaving buyers exposed to high delivery costs and renewed disruption. Capital Economics economist Hamad Hussain said Iran would need to escalate to recover its earlier influence over regional oil flows. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to target undersea communication cables in Hormuz if U.S. attacks disrupt Iran's regional security. Traders and shipowners are betting the risk is worth it, but oil traders worry the improvised network is unsustainable: it fails if global prices fall or Gulf exporters push prices higher.
Exports are back at prewar levels, but flows through Hormuz itself remain at about 82% of prewar volumes, roughly 14 million barrels a day. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Gulf crude shipments have rebounded to nearly 80% of prewar levels, a lower estimate than the combined flows reported for the week ending Oct. 18. Iran's leverage has diminished but it still controls part of the channel and threatens escalation. Oil remains elevated, freight absorbs a quarter of the barrel's value, and the main costs are still borne by buyers and shipowners. The crisis has not ended; it has shifted from shortage to a new normal of high prices, high risk and high cost.