Blanche Denies DOJ Is Rigging Alaska's Senate Race as Certification Fight Erupts

Blanche Denies DOJ Is Rigging Alaska's Senate Race as Certification Fight Erupts

A Lawsuit That Triggers Only If the Republican Loses

The U.S. Justice Department filed suit late on October 22 in federal court in Alaska, asking that the state be barred from automatically certifying its November 3 Senate election if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses. Citing the National Voter Registration Act, the complaint argues the ballot is tainted by a second candidate with a nearly identical name and asks that certification be frozen until the government investigates whether votes for Daniel J. Sullivan were truly meant for the senator. The trigger, as described in coverage of the filing, is a loss by the incumbent smaller than the namesake's vote total — in that case, the suit says, certifying the result would fail to protect the integrity of the election.

Two Sullivans on One Ballot, and a Retired Teacher's Solo Run

The ballot itself is the heart of the dispute. The incumbent appears as "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent," while a retired teacher from the fishing town of Petersburg appears with no party affiliation as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." Election officials removed the Petersburg candidate from the ballot in June, finding his run was not in "good faith," but the state Supreme Court ordered his inclusion that same month. He insists he is running on his own, and Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign denies any involvement with him. The Justice Department alleges instead that he entered as a Republican with the intention of misleading the senator's supporters and siphoning votes to benefit the Peltola campaign — a claim he and Peltola's team reject.

Blanche Goes on CNN to Deny an Election-Stealing Plot

Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the suit on CNN's "State of the Union" on October 25. Pressed on whether the case was laying the groundwork for President Donald Trump to challenge midterm results, Blanche called the suggestion "crazy" and said the department was "not laying any groundwork" for the president to overturn anything "in any way, shape or form." The groundwork being laid, he said, was for Alaska to have the ability after the election to determine whether voter confusion violated the law. The department has not explained how investigators could reconstruct voter intent given the secret ballot.

Trump Says He Ordered It; Critics Call It Interference

Trump told reporters in Florida on October 23 that he ordered the case, saying "I'm the one that said do it." Democrats and several legal experts condemned the suit as an attempt to invalidate votes and interfere with the democratic process, arguing that Washington is pre-judging a Republican loss as illegitimate. Named as defendants are the State of Alaska, Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher, and the state ballot-counting review boards. Alaska officials have not said whether they would pause certification if the court rules against them before counting ends.

A Toss-up Seat Under Ranked Choice, With the Senate at Stake

The seat is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, while Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved it to Leans Democrat. Recent polling shows a tight race with Peltola narrowly ahead in most surveys: a New York Times/Siena poll completed October 1 put her at 50.1 percent to Sullivan's 43.1 percent; Alaska Survey Research's October 3 poll had her up 47 percent to 45 percent; and a Quantus Insights poll from late September showed a near tie at 46.8 percent for Sullivan and 46.5 percent for Peltola, with the other Sullivan at 1.6 percent. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so voters can rank both Sullivans — a wrinkle that complicates any claim about who a ballot "really" meant. A frozen certification could leave the winner unknown for weeks and potentially decide control of the next Senate.

What Comes Next: A Judge, a Margin, and an Untested Standard

The immediate question is whether the judge grants a conditional freeze on certification before November 3. If the court says no, counting and certification proceed normally. If the court says yes but Sullivan wins reelection, the case becomes moot. Only a narrow loss by the incumbent, with the margin smaller than his namesake's share, would trigger the confusion investigation — and there is no settled standard for how a court would measure confusion or what remedy could follow. With days to go, Alaska voters are casting ballots that lawyers may end up relitigating vote by vote.