Brussels Readies a Second Wave of Curbs on Chinese Imports

Brussels Readies a Second Wave of Curbs on Chinese Imports

Safeguards Next, Covering Chemicals, Furniture and Machinery

The European Union is preparing safeguard measures to cut imports of Chinese chemicals, furniture and machinery, with the package potentially presented in the first quarter of 2027. The European Commission has begun screening trade data for sectors hit by import surges, according to people familiar with the matter.

Quotas or Tariff-Rate Quotas, Imposed Without Beijing's Consent

The new curbs could take the form of import quotas or tariff-rate quotas, which levy duties on volumes above a set threshold. Like the hybrid-vehicle deal, they would comply with World Trade Organization rules and could be imposed unilaterally, without Beijing's agreement. Measures of this kind apply beyond China to exporters outside the European Economic Area.

The Hybrid Deal as Template: 350,000 Cars a Year for Four Years

Earlier this month Brussels and Beijing agreed to cap Chinese hybrid-vehicle imports at 350,000 cars a year, effective December 1, for four years, with the quota rising 6 percent annually from the second year. Roughly 800,000 Chinese battery and plug-in hybrids are expected to be sold in the EU this year, versus 302,000 imports in 2025, so the cap roughly halves China's segment share from 6 percent to 3 percent. Officials judged 350,000 high enough to discourage retaliation.

Von der Leyen Promises Action as the Deficit Tops 360 Billion Euros

"Our industries have called for action and we have heard them, and we will respond, including some more safeguards," Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier in October. The EU's goods deficit with China hit 359.8 billion euros (about $402.7 billion) in 2025, with imports up 6.4 percent and exports down 6.5 percent. In the second quarter of 2026 the gap reached roughly 103 billion euros, the widest since the third quarter of 2022, running at more than 1 billion euros a day.

Tariff Cuts From Beijing, Minerals Access Still on the Table

Under understandings reached so far, Beijing would lower duties on some auto parts, olive oil and ice cream, while Brussels keeps pressing for better market access in China and smoother export procedures for critical minerals and permanent magnets. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic is due to review progress with his Chinese counterparts early in 2027. Beijing, for its part, has warned that the EU should not imagine it can gain benefits through pressure.

Factories Welcome Relief, but Costs and Retaliation Loom

China's share of EU chemical imports has roughly doubled over the past decade to nearly 18 percent, making it the bloc's largest supplier, and in 2025 China overtook Germany as the world's biggest machine-tool exporter, with shipments up 13 percent to 8.6 billion euros ($9.6 billion) while Germany's fell 10 percent to 7 billion euros. Domestic producers want protection, but EU manufacturers reliant on Chinese inputs face higher costs, and European carmakers and machinery exporters could be exposed if Beijing answers in kind.