Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on November 13, 2026, that persistent inflation is the main signal for future rate decisions. He spoke in San Diego. Growth and the labor market have stabilized, he said. Price pressures remain elevated.
Jefferson's remarks in San Diego
Jefferson delivered prepared remarks at the University of California, San Diego. The Fed voted 10-2 in October to hold rates steady. It said it would wait for more data. Jefferson said October readings showed solid activity. Inflation is still well above the central bank's target. Unlike some colleagues, he did not point to a specific hike size. He said data and risks need careful review.
The October vote and the data
The October vote was 10-2. Rates stayed steady. The Fed said it would await more data. October readings showed solid economic activity. Inflation remains well above target. Jefferson did not guide toward a specific hike size. He stressed careful evaluation of evolving data. He also stressed the balance of risks.
A week of hawkish comments
Jefferson's speech closed a week of hawkish Fed commentary. Markets hardened expectations for a December hike. September brought a quarter-point increase. Governor Christopher Waller warned a 50 basis points move may be needed next month. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson favored gradual hikes. Jefferson said: "Accordingly, I see the trajectory of inflation as providing the more important signal for determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy."
Jefferson's warning on artificial intelligence
Jefferson warned about rapid artificial intelligence adoption. It could raise long-term borrowing costs, he said. It could also create structural unemployment. Monetary policy cannot solve that, he said.
What futures markets show
Federal funds futures point to increases in December and January. Another move follows in either March or April. Policymakers will review incoming inflation and labor reports. The December meeting comes first.
