Democrats Seize the Senate Map Days Before the Midterms

Democrats Seize the Senate Map Days Before the Midterms

CNN polls put Democrats ahead in Michigan and Texas

Five days before the midterms, CNN released a battery of Senate polls conducted by the nonpartisan firm SSRS. Democrats led beyond the margin of error in Michigan and Texas, while the races in Maine and Kansas showed no clear leader. The findings, published October 29, sketch a credible Democratic path to a Senate majority.

Texas stunner: Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%

Michigan firewall: El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 42%

Campaigns split on spin as other polls show tighter races

CNN's detail pages emphasize Talarico's strength with Latino likely voters at 63% and with voters of color overall at 64%, including 22% of voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024. El-Sayed has consolidated Democrats, taking 95% of Democratic likely voters, up from 90% in September. Other surveys show closer contests: a Fox News poll released October 21 had Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each, down from a 51%-49% Talarico edge a month earlier, while a Texas Southern University poll of 2,000 likely voters taken October 21-25 and released October 29 had Talarico ahead 49% to 47%, with 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown and 1% undecided.

Favorability gap drags down Republicans

Why it matters: the majority runs through these two states

What comes next: independents and turnout decide

Polls are not votes. The Fox News tie, the two-point Texas Southern margin inside its 2.19-point error band, and the 15% of Michigan independents still undecided all point to turnout as the decider. Democrats need Latino and younger voters to show up; Republicans need conservatives, rural voters, and suburban women to come home. The November 3 general election will say whether these leads were realignment or mirage.