The Paris Agreement entered into force on Nov. 4, 2016. A decade later, climate policies, clean-energy investment and national pledges have changed substantially, but the world is still not on track to meet the treaty’s temperature goals. The agreement seeks to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Recent research suggests the agreement helped accelerate policy action and the energy transition, but it has not yet produced a sustained decline in global emissions.
Slower emissions growth is not the same as falling emissions
An analysis published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Nov. 4 examined emissions, economic and energy data from 170 countries dating back to 1990. It found that global emissions grew by about 1.8% annually from 2005 to 2015. After 2015, the annual growth rate slowed to roughly 0.7%. A cleaner energy mix, more efficient fossil-fuel use and slower global economic growth all contributed. But total emissions continued to rise. A slower increase should not be mistaken for a global emissions decline.
Projections have improved since 2015, but the gap remains large
Climate Action Tracker estimates that policies in place around the time of the Paris Agreement pointed to about 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Its estimate for current policies has since fallen to about 2.6°C. That is meaningful progress, but it remains far above the agreement’s temperature goals. The United Nations Environment Programme’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report similarly says that even full implementation of current national climate pledges would leave the world on a path toward about 2.6°C of warming this century. A pathway that returns warming to 1.5°C by 2100 would require much deeper global emissions cuts by 2030 and 2035.
Clean energy and climate finance have expanded
Over the past decade, solar and wind power, electric vehicles and energy-efficiency policies have expanded, helping some countries cut emissions or slow their growth. The OECD identifies a rising share of low-carbon energy as one factor behind the slower growth rate. Climate finance has also increased. OECD figures show that developed countries provided and mobilised $136.7 billion in climate finance in 2024, exceeding the collective $100 billion annual goal for a third consecutive year. However, loans still account for much of public climate finance, while developing countries continue to need substantial support for adaptation, resilient infrastructure and energy-system transitions.
The next phase is about implementation
The Paris Agreement uses a five-year cycle in which countries are expected to submit stronger climate plans over time. The International Energy Agency’s 2026 policy assessment says the latest round of national pledges does not yet imply a faster pace of energy-sector emissions reductions. Some countries had also not submitted updated 2035 targets by the agency’s reporting cutoff. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has highlighted how much earlier the long-term 1.5°C threshold may be reached than projections made when the agreement was adopted. The next test is whether governments can turn commitments into electrification, efficiency improvements, reduced fossil-fuel dependence and funding that reaches climate mitigation and adaptation projects.