Quarterly Economic Growth Slows as Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Ease
The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) published preliminary national accounts on November 15, 2026, confirming real GDP expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024. This was a deceleration from the 0.5% growth recorded in the second quarter, falling below consensus projections of 0.2% compiled by the Bank of England. Monthly economic output contracted 0.1% in September, influenced by retrenchment across manufacturing.
According to ONS bulletins, the tertiary service sector—approximately four-fifths of domestic output—expanded 0.1% across the quarter, sustained primarily by retail distribution and digital software. The manufacturing sector contracted 0.5% in September, contributing to a 0.2% decline in total quarterly production output. Construction advanced 0.8% during the three-month period.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves enacted revenue provisions in late October, delivering £40 billion in annual tax increases. Central to the package was an increase in employer National Insurance contributions to 15%, paired with a lowered salary threshold. The Confederation of British Industry warned that heightened non-wage payroll expenses will prompt enterprises to moderate hiring, constrain wage increases, and defer long-term capital investments. Persistent domestic services inflation and elevated energy costs stabilized annual Consumer Price Index inflation near 2.3%, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that monetary policy must remain disciplined and data-dependent, constraining market pricing for an immediate benchmark interest rate reduction from 4
