The United States Census Bureau released official macroeconomic estimates on November 15, 2026, confirming that advance domestic retail and food services sales for October 2024 increased 0.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted $718.9 billion. The preliminary performance surpassed consensus Wall Street institutional projections of a 0.3% advance. Federal statistical revisions adjusted September's monthly increase upward from an initial 0.4% to 0.8%. Year-over-year retail transactions climbed 2.8% above October 2023 figures.
According to statistical tables released by the Department of Commerce, automobile and parts dealers recorded a 1.6% monthly sales surge, representing the largest single contributor to aggregate sales growth. Electronics and appliance specialty merchants posted a 2.3% monthly gain. Building material and garden equipment suppliers recorded a 0.5% advance. Miscellaneous store retailers experienced a 1.6% monthly decline, while apparel and accessories boutiques saw sales ease 0.2%. Core retail control group sales—which exclude volatile automotive dealers, gasoline service stations, building supply outlets, and food services to feed directly into the federal calculation of Gross Domestic Product personal consumption expenditures—declined 0.1% following an extraordinary 1.2% surge in September.
Food services and drinking establishments recorded a 0.7% monthly advance, climbing 4.3% year-over-year. Non-store retailers inched up 0.3% month-over-month while sustaining an annualized growth trajectory of 7.0%. Economists at Goldman Sachs adjusted their forecast for fourth-quarter annualized real GDP growth upward to approximately 2.5%. Consumer sentiment surveys published by the University of Michigan noted that elevated price levels continue to encourage price comparisons among middle-income households.
Data compiled by the CME FedWatch Tool indicated that financial market participants priced an implied probability of approximately 60% for a 25-basis-point policy rate reduction at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The yield on the benchmark 10-year United States Treasury note traded near 4.45%.
